Datafolha: Lula does better among those who receive Aid Brasil and are afraid of Covid

The share of voters who intend to vote for former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the October election is greater among those who receive Auxílio Brasil, a successor program to Bolsa Família, and among those who are still afraid of being infected with the coronavirus. .

The PT also has more adherence among those who believe that guns would not make Brazilian society safer and among those who trust electronic voting machines. Even so, about half of its supporters think the Armed Forces should participate in counting votes.

See below what people who have Lula as their first choice for president think about these four themes: economy, weapons, pandemic and polls. Also understand their profile, generally poorer, blacker, more indigenous, younger, more northeastern, less educated and more Catholic.

The issues were questioned in the latest Datafolha survey, carried out with 2,556 people over 16 years old in 181 cities across the country on May 25th and 26th. The survey was commissioned by Sheet and is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-05166/2022.

The total margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points. It is important to consider, however, that it increases when considering only those who will vote for each candidate. Within this sample, there are 1,234 in favor of Lula, 693 in favor of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and 179 in favor of Ciro Gomes (PDT).

1. ECONOMY

While 66% of Brazilians overall think the country’s economy has worsened in recent months, the figure rises to 84% among Lula voters. When asked about their own economic situation, the comparison is also 52% to 70%.

The shares are much higher than those of Bolsonaro’s supporters and one slightly higher than those of Ciro. For just over half of those who intend to vote for PT, Brazil’s economic situation has a lot of influence on the vote for president.

A quarter of them receive financial assistance from Auxílio Brasil – a level also above 12% for Ciro and 16% for Bolsonaro, who reformulated and renamed the income transfer program. Three out of four of the beneficiaries who support the PT, however, find the amount insufficient, which is at least R$ 400.

2. WEAPONS

Eight out of ten of Lula’s voters disagreed with the phrases: “Brazilian society would be safer if people were armed to protect themselves from violence”, “it is necessary to facilitate people’s access to weapons” and “the armed people will never be enslaved”. .

The share is higher than that of Bolsonaro’s supporters, who are generally divided down the middle on the subject, but lower than that of Ciro’s supporters, who have a slightly higher disagreement but still within the margins of error.

3. PANDEMIC

People who intend to vote for Lula are the ones who most think the pandemic is out of control in the country (17%, against 10% for Bolsonaro and 6% for Ciro). Almost seven out of ten of them rate Bolsonaro’s performance on the topic as bad or terrible.

Consequently, Lulas are the most fearful of being infected with the coronavirus — 75% are very or a little afraid. Their vaccination rate, therefore, is higher: 98% declare that they were immunized, despite only 58% having taken the booster dose.

Almost all of its voters (99%) agree that the federal government should provide the vaccine free of charge to the entire population in 2023.

4. ELECTRONIC VOTES

The survey shows that 83% of those who intend to vote for Lula trust a little or a lot in electronic voting machines — against 58% among those who tend to choose Bolsonaro. Therefore, most of them (57%) do not believe in the chance of fraud in the elections, as the current president says.

Despite this, the same share of PT supporters thinks that Bolsonaro’s attacks and threats should be taken seriously by the country’s institutions and about half (48%) fully or partially agree that the Armed Forces should participate in the counting of votes.

5. PROFILE

Lula’s voters are slightly more masculine (39% of men spontaneously cited him as their first option, against 36% of women), despite the difference being within the margin of error and smaller than among Bolsonaro voters (out of 27 % and 18%, respectively).

He is also younger: his voting intentions are 43% among those aged between 16 and 24, and drops to 36% among those aged over 60, unlike his rival. The PT is the choice of almost half of the students and most of the interns and apprentices.

It tends to garner even more votes among those who earn up to two minimum wages per month (44% of this group mention it), among those who attended only elementary school (43%) and among Northeasterners (49%). It takes advantage of the competitor between Catholics and blacks, but indigenous people are the ones who most clash, with 59%.