The new fuel price adjustment announced this Friday (17) by Petrobras cornered the government and the campaign of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who sees the advance of inflation as the main obstacle to his reelection project in October.
Shortly after the company’s announcement, Bolsonaro and allies launched threats of retaliation against the company, its president, José Mauro Ferreira Coelho, and the other executives — including the creation of a CPI (Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry) to investigate them.
The president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), told the Sheet that “goes to the dick” to “review all prices” of fuel. The company’s pricing policy, aligned with the international market, is a constant target of criticism from the political wing.
A possible taxation of extraordinary profits by oil companies and possible sanctions by CADE (Administrative Council for Economic Defense) on Petrobras in the event of proven abuse of dominant power have also become instruments of pressure. The company holds the largest share of the fuel refining market.
According to allies, the revolt of members of the Planalto and congressmen aligned with the government is due to the fact that the adjustment overshadows the effects expected with the approval, by Congress, of a ceiling for the ICMS, a state tax, on fuel.
The project must be sanctioned by next Monday (20), and the first results in the bombs were expected by the political class for the next week. Now, however, the relief must be annulled by Petrobras’ decision.
The forecast of Dietmar Schupp, specialist tax consultant, was that the ICMS ceiling would lead to an average reduction in the value of gasoline of R$ 0.657 per liter. The impact on diesel would be almost nil, since many states charge lower rates on this fuel.
A greater impact, of up to R$0.76 for a liter of diesel and R$1.65 for gasoline, was projected with the broader package, which includes cutting federal taxes on gasoline and ethanol (approved in the same project) and a PEC (Proposed Amendment to the Constitution) to transfer up to R$ 29.6 billion to the states in exchange for them to zero ICMS rates on diesel and gas.
Members of the president’s campaign have always seen the increase in fuel as the biggest obstacle for the ticket headed by Bolsonaro.
One of them went so far as to privately say that a readjustment during the electoral period would be “fatal” to the ambitions of the chief executive. Bolsonaro is in second place in the polls, behind former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).
The new readjustment in the pumps also adds fuel to the fire of inflation, which reached a peak of 12.13% in the 12 months through April and showed signs of deceleration in May, with an accumulated increase of 11.73%.
With logistics dependent on road freight transport, the rise in diesel ends up spilling over into the prices of other products, such as food, and putting pressure on truck drivers. The category is part of the president’s support base, but even so it is constantly monitored by the Planalto due to the risks of strikes.
Government advisers say the current situation is still very different from 2018, when truck drivers stopped the country due to increases in fuel prices. However, they admit that the new increase is “terrible” and could result in an increase of more than R$ 1 per liter of diesel.
Since Thursday night (16), Bolsonaro, Lira and ministers Paulo Guedes (Economy), Adolfo Sachsida (Mines and Energy) and Ciro Nogueira (Casa Civil) had been talking to each other with the certainty that there would be a readjustment.
Faced with the imminence of the announcement, Lira even called the president of Petrobras on Thursday to try to reverse the decision.
“I called Zé Mauro [presidente da Petrobras] yesterday [quinta, 16]. I asked him not to give a raise, [disse]: ‘you are working against, what is expected of Petrobras is something else’; and I said I was going to do a job to fire him, I’m going to propose with the government to tax Petrobras’ profits. He [respondeu]: ‘not quite, is the advice [de administração]I’m not postponing my departure,'” said Lira.
The president of the Chamber also stated that José Mauro “is messing around” and that an increase of the type “is absurd”.
In the view of Bolsonaro and allies, the increase was approved because the president of Petrobras and other company executives were already publicly fired in May (after a first readjustment in diesel prices), although they remain temporarily in office.
Minister Adolfo Sachsida referred the appointment of Caio Paes de Andrade, current special secretary at the Ministry of Economy, to preside over the company. Other government names were appointed to compose the board of directors.
The effect of the exchange, however, still depends on the analysis of the compliance of the CVs in relation to the company’s rules and the convening of a shareholders’ meeting — a process that can still take more than a month.
The government has already pressured José Mauro to resign from the post, which would pave the way for a faster change in command of the company, but he has resisted. The onslaught gained further reinforcement this Friday, with Lira publicly demanding that the current president of Petrobras resign from the position.
In an interview with a broadcaster in Rio Grande do Norte this Friday, Bolsonaro accused José Mauro of boycotting Sachsida and listed the pressure instruments to be used by the government against the company’s current command.
“I just talked to Arthur Lira, he is currently meeting with party leaders. Our idea is to propose a CPI to investigate the president of Petrobras, its directors and also the administrative and fiscal council”, he declared.
A CPI has the power to determine that investigations are carried out, depositions are taken, information is requested from public bodies and even the breach of telephone, banking, tax and telematic confidentiality of investigated persons.
Bolsonaro also made it clear that the replacement of José Mauro aims to hold prices. “In exchange, we can put competent people in there [da Petrobras] in order to understand the company’s social purpose and not grant this readjustment, which destroys the Brazilian economy and brings inflation to the entire population”, he said in the interview.
The president of Cade, Alexandre Cordeiro, also put pressure on Petrobras again and signaled that the company could face sanctions because of the high prices.
THE Sheet, Cordeiro said that “Petrobras doesn’t seem too concerned about its image”. According to him, who is linked to Ciro Nogueira, there is market concentration in the sector and this can lead Cade to curb “abuse of dominant position”.
“Cade, in the fulfillment of its institutional mission, will not shy away from curbing any abuse of a dominant position. We already have an open administrative inquiry at an advanced stage”, he said.
Petrobras could also feel the pressure from the financial path, with the proposal to increase the taxation of the company’s profit on the table. Today, the company pays a rate of 9% of CSLL (Social Contribution on Net Income). Lira even suggested doubling the charge, and government technicians have already been mobilized to discuss the issue.
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