Inflation reduces variety of products in supermarkets; milk is affected

With the impact of inflation on sales, supermarkets have reduced inventories and, consequently, the variety of products available to consumers on the shelves in recent months.

This is what a survey by Neogrid, a company specializing in artificial intelligence services for supply chains, indicates.

In the transition from May to June, the so-called rupture rate even had a slight drop, from 11.5% to 11%, according to the survey. The level, however, is still considered high by Neogrid.

In practice, the rate of 11% means that, in a list with 100 items, 11 were not found by the consumer on supermarket shelves in June.

The survey analyzes information from around 40,000 stores across Brazil, according to Robson Munhoz, Neogrid’s customer success director.

The stockout rate does not even indicate a shortage of products. It only signals occasional shortages of items on the shelves, which may be associated with lower stocks.

“The index has been fluctuating, but it is still considered high. In the previous month, it had been 11.5% […]. When it stays at 11%, it lights up an alert”, says Munhoz.

According to him, it is mainly inflation that is behind the scenario. Faced with the loss of consumer purchasing power, supermarkets try to balance inventories, focusing on what has the greatest output with the customer at the moment, indicates the director.

“The root cause is inflation”, says Munhoz.

Another possible sign of inflationary pressure, according to the survey, is the drop in supermarket sales in units. This indicator reached the lowest level since January 2020 in June. Neogrid says that, for contractual reasons, it does not detail the absolute data.

milk is affected

Among the products, the survey highlights the unavailability of long-life milk, whose prices have soared in recent months.

The item breakage index was 19.4% in June, after 18.8% in the previous month. The result is the highest since April 2020 (20.3%), the initial phase of the pandemic.

From January to June, milk accumulated inflation of 41.76% in the country, according to the IPCA (National Index of Consumer Prices), released by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). In June alone, the increase was 10.7%.

“It’s not a shortage, we are far from it. But what happens is that brands have to increase the price and can, momentarily, stay out of the day to day of the stores”, points out Munhoz.

According to him, the rupture of milk is associated with factors such as lower production. The situation in the field was impacted by costs, which were higher with the adverse weather on pastures and the high prices of feed consumed by cattle, among other factors.

Neogrid also highlights the high in the break in June of the poultry eggs category. The index hit 19.4% last month, after 17% in May. The new result is the highest since February this year (20.1%).

Inflation in Brazil

In June, the country’s official inflation index rose 0.67%​, according to the IBGE. The data represented an acceleration of the IPCA, since, in May, the advance had been less intense, of 0.47%.

In the 12 months through June, Brazilian inflation accumulated a high of 11.89%. In this cut, the IPCA has been in double digits, above 10%, for ten months. That is, since September of last year.

Such a long streak has not occurred since the 2002 to 2003 range. At the time, the index was in double digits for 13 consecutive months, from November 2002 to November 2003.

A Folha report showed that, throughout the pandemic, the rise in prices reached even cuts of meat once despised by many Brazilians. Not even the crow’s foot has escaped inflation. Chicken neck and carcass have also become more expensive.