The government of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) will propose a minimum wage of R$ 1,302 for 2023, without a real increase for the fourth year in a row, according to sources heard by the Ministry of Health. Sheet.
The last time the national floor was readjusted above inflation was in early 2019, in a decree signed by Bolsonaro, following the valuation policy approved by law during the Dilma Rousseff (PT) government.
The validity of this policy ended in 2019. Since then, the current government has chosen to only restore the variation of the INPC (National Consumer Price Index), an adjustment that is mandatory to ensure the maintenance of workers’ purchasing power.
The new forecast for the minimum wage will be included in the submission of the Budget proposal for next year. The document must be sent by August 31 to the National Congress.
The amount is BRL 8 above the BRL 1,294 estimated in April, when the government presented the LDO (Budget Guidelines Law). Since then, however, the projections for the variation of the INPC this year have increased. Currently, the Ministry of Economy expects the inflation rate to end the year at 7.41%.
The figure is also BRL 90 above the current floor, set at BRL 1,212.
Despite the indication to be given by the government, the effective value of the minimum wage in 2023 will only be known at the end of the year. Until then, inflation forecasts may fluctuate up or down.
It is also at the end of the year that the government adjusts the so-called residual — any differences between the projection and actual inflation. This is because the government sets the national floor before the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) publishes the official result for the INPC, which takes place in early January.
This year, for example, the minimum wage should be BRL 1,212.70 — or BRL 1,213 with the usual rounding. But the government had a lower forecast and ended up setting the floor at R$ 1,212, one real lower than necessary.
The adjustment of this difference is not incorporated into the forecast sent with the Budget, but is made at the time of editing the MP (provisional measure) that stipulates the new minimum wage.
In addition to inflation variations, the value of the minimum wage may be influenced by the results of the polls in October.
Leader in voting intention polls, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has promised to resume the valorization policy, with real gains for workers.
When he was president, Lula started a policy of granting increases in the minimum wage above inflation. Her successor, Dilma Rousseff, formalized the practice with a formula that was in force between 2011 and 2019: readjustment by the INPC plus real GDP growth from two years earlier.
The Bolsonaro government, through the team of Minister Paulo Guedes (Economy), chose in recent years to discontinue this policy, due to the cascading effect of the readjustment of the minimum wage on other public expenditures.
Social security benefits, assistance and expenses such as salary bonus (kind of 14th salary paid to formal workers who earn up to two floors) and unemployment insurance are linked to the value of the minimum wage.
In the LDO 2023, the technicians calculated that each BRL 1 increase in the value of the minimum wage increases total government spending by BRL 389.8 million. In practice, the readjustment of the minimum wage for inflation would have an impact of R$ 35.1 billion next year.
Under the spending cap, which provides an inflation-adjusted spending cap, any granting of a real increase would lead to the need to cut spending in other areas to avoid breaking the rule.
The choice of the current government, however, is constantly criticized by entities that represent workers. This year, the amount paid was not enough to buy even two basic food baskets a month in the city of São Paulo in January, according to Dieese (Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies).
In May of this year, the current value of R$ 1,212 was approved by Congress under criticism even from government lawmakers.
The rapporteur of the proposal in the Senate, Soraya Thronicke (União Brasil-MS), said at the time that her text defending the value proposed by the government was a “lie” and an “illusion for the Brazilian people”. This month, she was made official by the legend as a candidate for the Presidency of the Republic.
In the session, Thronicke read the passage of the Constitution that says that the minimum wage should meet basic needs with housing, food, education, health, leisure, clothing, hygiene, transportation and social security.
“And then it’s very beautiful on paper. That’s why, once again, I’m embarrassed, because it’s so beautiful. [a Constituição] and this minimum wage that we have to approve does not guarantee any of that”, he said.
I have over 8 years of experience in the news industry. I have worked for various news websites and have also written for a few news agencies. I mostly cover healthcare news, but I am also interested in other topics such as politics, business, and entertainment. In my free time, I enjoy writing fiction and spending time with my family and friends.
