Increased movement encourages retail for the end of the year

Even after a warmer than expected Black Friday and the arrival of a new variant of the coronavirus, the gradual increase in the movement in commerce this year is encouraging the sector. Representatives of high street stores and malls are optimistic about the demand for Christmas.

The most recent publication of the IPV (Retail Performance Index), by HiPartners Capital & Work and partners, shows a 10% increase in the flow of visits to malls, with a 12% increase in sales between September and November across the country.

In the same comparison, street commerce registered an increase of 8% in movement and 4% in purchases.

In São Paulo alone, according to a survey by the Gastão Vidigal Economics Institute, of the São Paulo Trade Association, there was a 14.5% growth in sales in the first half of November compared to the same period in 2020.

Although the percentage is timid (0.9%), the projection even surpasses the result of 2019, the year before the pandemic.

On the other hand, the CNC (National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism) should revise downwards the projections it had previously made for Christmas sales, up 3.8% (after discounting inflation) compared to the last year. The reason is the poor result of Black Friday, according to Fábio Bentes, economist at the entity.

Maurício Romiti, administrative and financial director at Nassau Empreendimentos, a company that operates in the shopping center sector, believes that even with the rise in inflation, the dollar and other daily costs, this year’s result will be positive. However, it is not yet possible to make concrete estimates, as it depends on the advance in the omicron variant of the coronavirus.

“This year’s Christmas will be different from the last, as this is the first time since 2019 that families will be able to get together to celebrate the date together. The average ticket is expected to be lower in real values, but the billing should stay very close to 2019, which in no way frustrates trade,” he observes.

In the assessment of Ulisses Ruiz de Gamboa, economist at the São Paulo Trade Association, the growth in sales for the months of November and December will be 8% to 10% compared to 2020. “In addition to the acceleration of inflation, families are still in debt and unemployment is still high”, he points out.

Regarding Black Friday, while recognizing that the result was below expectations, Gamboa recalls that, in some businesses, promotions are not over yet and may boost sales. The estimate is that the date will move R$ 6 billion across the country.

Luís Augusto Ildefonso, institutional director of Alshop (Brazilian Association of Shopping Shop Owners), assesses that the population has repressed demand after the “opens and closes” sequence of commerce in the pandemic.

“We have had a sequence of growth in the last four, five months, which encourages the merchant. This year, on all great dates, such as Mother’s Day, [Dia dos] Valentines, Father’s Day, had sales above expectations, and [isso] it’s very good, it gives confidence”.

Another bet to attract consumers is the customer experience. In addition to Santa Claus, which draws the attention of families with children, the concentration of online shopping in the pandemic brought the urgency of face-to-face shopping, in which consumers can touch and try the product before closing a deal.