One day after the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government was criticized for sending the 2023 Budget proposal with a Brazil Aid of R$405, Minister Paulo Guedes (Economy) said this Thursday (1st) that he could appeal to the state of public calamity to maintain the minimum value of R$600 next year if the Ukrainian War continues.
“Obviously we are going to pay. There is a temporary solution. If the Ukrainian War continues, it extends the state of calamity and then you continue with R$ 600”, said the minister, who came out in defense of the president’s promises in the campaign for reelection, after an event in Rio de Janeiro.
In June, a wing of the Bolsonaro government defended a new decree of public calamity – an exceptional situation that prevailed during the Covid-19 crisis.
However, the option faced resistance from several technicians (mainly from the Ministry of Economy), who did not see the conflict in Europe as a plausible justification for such a drastic measure.
The solution found was the institution of a state of emergency via PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution), which allowed the government to break the spending ceiling and open public coffers for the payment of social benefits boosted to the population a few months before the elections.
The authorization given by the PEC extends until the end of the year. Therefore, technically there is no way to extend the state of emergency without the approval of a new PEC – an exit rejected behind the scenes by technicians who prefer to forward a structural solution.
Guedes proposes to pay aid of R$ 600 and correction of income tax with tax on profits and dividends
In the afternoon, Guedes spoke again about the R$ 600 grant, at an event organized in São Paulo by the IUB (Instituto União Brasil), which brought together names such as Flávio Rocha (Riachuelo) and Luigi Nese (National Confederation of Services).
The minister promised to maintain the benefit amount for next year and said that the increase was due to a “political imperative”.
Earlier, in Rio de Janeiro, Guedes had already stated that a structural and permanent solution would be needed to keep the benefit at the level of R$ 600.
“The Chamber has already approved the tax on profits and dividends. That would amount to R$ 69 billion. In other words, it is perfectly possible to readjust the income tax table [Imposto de Renda] of R$ 17 billion plus the R$ 52 billion in aid. If you do that, it’s all right,” he said in Rio.
However, the Income Tax reform, which, among other things, resumes taxation on profits and dividends distributed to individuals, is stalled in the Senate.
The minister took advantage of the event in São Paulo to claim the paternity of Emergency Aid and ensure the continuity of Auxílio Brasil at R$ 600 in 2023 — a topic dear to President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who seeks to improve his electoral performance with families of minors. income.
Guedes assesses that the reaction of the economic team was quick at the beginning of the pandemic. “We set out to fight the disease, with BEM [programa de redução de salários e jornada] and Emergency Aid. Today they say it was the House and Congress, I was there, I was a witness, I created it. Congress did what we expected, we put in R$200, they wanted to increase it…”
“It was President Bolsonaro who put in R$600, I can testify wherever he wants, I was there and he called me, ‘look, let’s put it in R$600’. The advantage of putting in R$400 was to have more time, but the budget war was approved for one year”, Guedes continued.
Guedes did not mention that the first plan envisaged by the government at the beginning of the pandemic, in March 2020, was to give a benefit of R$200 to the most vulnerable for three months and suspend formal employment contracts, with the release of unemployment insurance.
Regarding the increase in the benefit again this year, on the eve of the election, the minister said there was a “political imperative”, with high inflation and the poorest families began to find it more difficult to survive, so it was necessary to increase the Aid again to BRL 600.
He also countered criticism that the highest value benefit is not guaranteed for next year. “Brazil cannot put this right now, according to the LRF (Fiscal Responsibility Law), but the commitment is assumed, it will be R$ 600.”
Guedes also said that the pandemic hampered the approval of the Green and Yellow Card project – in fact, the government tried to approve the project, but did not have the support of the Senate, which twice overturned attempts at a mini labor reform with fewer rights. . “Young people will be able to choose between one regime or another. There will be 40 million who will be legalized and will be able to handle these resources.”
The minister also admitted the possibility of using precatories again in an eventual second term of Bolsonaro. “I spent five, six months being called a deadbeat on the precatories, nobody understood what we were doing (…), when I was doing the opposite, I was making expenses predictable.”
According to a Datafolha poll, Bolsonaro remains in second place in polls, behind former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). Sending the Budget with a lower amount to Auxílio Brasil has been exploited by the PT campaign as a factor to erode the president’s image.
The presidential message sent along with the budget project contains Bolsonaro’s promise to seek the resumption of the R$600, but without detailing how this will be done.
In the proposal, R$ 105.7 billion were reserved for the Auxílio Brasil program, enough to cover the minimum of R$ 400 to 21.6 million families. According to the Ministry of Economy, the average benefit will be R$ 405.21.
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