Vaivém: In an atypical year, agribusiness balance breaks all records

Brazilian agribusiness exports less, but receives much more. From January to August, eight products from the agricultural trade balance managed to enter the list of exports with accumulated revenues exceeding US$ 5 billion each.

This is because the supply of products has shrunk, in some cases, and demand has intensified even more because of international supply difficulties. The Ukrainian War is one reason, but not the only one.

Low inventories, drought in major agricultural countries and lower production boosted prices, boosting exporters’ revenues. The weak real is yet another incentive for exports.

At the current rate, the Brazilian trade balance should exceed US$ 145 billion during the year. It will not be easy for this scenario to repeat itself in 2023, unless the world food supply continues to fall, due to climate and geopolitical problems.

The normal will be a good world crop next year, but still just enough to rebalance stocks, which are low. With this, prices should accommodate, but not at such low levels.

Brazilian soy is a typical case of what happens this year. The country exported 66.7 million tons of the oilseed in the first eight months of this year, a volume 8% lower than in 2021. Revenues from the product, however, reached a record US$ 39 billion, 23% more than last year.

The soy complex, which includes exports of soy beans, bran and oil, due to high prices in the international market, has already reached the mark of US$ 49 billion this year, 29% more than from January to August of 2021.

The agribusiness trade balance is also heated up because of meat. The volume placed on the foreign market in the period rose 8%, but revenues, considering only “in natura” proteins, have already reached US$ 15.4 billion, 33% more than in 2021.

The highlight is beef, which, in August, broke the monthly export record, totaling 203,000 tons. The largest volume, until then, had been registered in September of last year, when foreign sales totaled 187 thousand tons.

Exports of “in natura” beef accumulate 1.3 million tons in the year, with revenues of US$ 8 billion. Chicken sales total US$ 5.97 billion; and pork, US$ 1.5 billion.

Coffee and corn, products that were affected by frost and drought last year, also entered the $5 billion club this year. Coffee exports, although they have fallen 11% in volume this year, obtained revenues 56% higher than last year.

Corn, whose exports already total 18 million tons, a volume close to that of the whole of last year, is rapidly recovering, after the fall in foreign sales in 2021.

Sugar revenues grew 25% to $61 billion. The evolution of exported volume, however, is higher than that of revenues, unlike the behavior of other products.

Outside the food group, cellulose also reaches US$ 5 billion this year. The value exceeds by 22% that from January to August 2021.