Lula is the favorite, but the election is not defined, say political analysts

A victory by former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in this year’s elections is the most likely scenario predicted by political analysts, even by the polls themselves that point to the PT candidate’s favoritism against Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

A turnaround in the scenario, with a turnaround by the current president a few days before the vote, however, is still not completely ruled out by experts.

“The polls, in fact, were better for Lula in recent days, reinforcing the former president’s favoritism,” said Silvio Cascione, director of Eurasia in Brazil, during an event promoted by Anbima and B3 this Tuesday (20) in Sao Paulo.

He added, however, that the improvement observed in the pace of economic activity in the country and measures to provide financial assistance to the population could favor Bolsonaro in the dispute.

“It helps President Bolsonaro the fact that the economy is improving at a faster rate than anyone imagined throughout this year,” Cascione said.

He also stated that, if the elections are decided in the second round, scheduled for October 30, there will still be about five weeks left until the final stretch, with an additional time from which the president could benefit, taking advantage of any positive impacts produced. by income transfer measures.

“If it really goes to the second round, most of the full campaign, with television advertising, debates, is still to come”, said the expert.

In a similar vein, Lucas de Aragão, a partner at Arko Advice, also recognized the former president’s favoritism in the dispute.

“Now, I always say that predicting an election is the same as predicting an exchange rate for an economist, it only serves to embarrass us,” stated Aragão.

The Arko partner also said that Lula’s favoritism stems, in part, from the high rejection of Bolsonaro, built up during the president’s first term.

“Now, in an election as consolidated as this one, where both have a high rejection, it’s going to be a wall of hate, with most people voting to avoid one rather than elect the other. This has happened all over the world.” , said Aragon.

“There’s a favoritism, but in an election of that level, if you slip 4 or 5 points up or down, it’s either an election defined in the 1st round or it’s almost a draw”, added the expert. “I think there’s a favoritism, yes, but I don’t think it’s defined.”

Social tension must not thrive, regardless of the election result

Whatever the outcome of the presidential elections, analysts do not believe in some kind of institutional rupture caused by the defeated candidate.

“The Boeing of Brazilian democracy has taken off and is going to land. It can be a turbulent flight, the oxygen mask may drop, there may be some shouting in the middle of the flight, but the plane will land beautifully”, said Aragão, from Arko.

Isolated episodes of demonstrations against the results may even occur, but there seems to be a lack of massive support for them to gain strength and prosper in a more relevant way, said the expert from the political consultancy.

Cascione, from Eurasia, indicated that he shared a similar view. “People in Eurasia are also not concerned about democracy or the electoral outcome,” he said. “Whoever wins the election, with the electronic ballot box, will be president from January 1st.”