The positive expectations and assessments of entrepreneurs are gradually strengthened, in order to continue the improvement of the economic conditions. However, uncertainty remains about the overall course of the pandemic.
This follows from two innovative and specialized indicators published monthly with the Center for Planning and Economic Research (KEPE), with a view to regular monitoring of the economic situation.
More detail:
– Composite Index antecedence KEPE. This is a complex antecedence Index (CRC) on the basis of a model power factor, which is manufactured using six selected monthly economic variables getting no characteristics. Provides leading indicators for progress and shifts in Greek economic activity, before they fix the current size of total economic activity. According to the most recent observation for August 2021.2 SAB noted re-growth, following the rise of the previous reporting period, outperforming even more the highest level recorded in August 2018, after years of economic crisis. This development appears to reflect the further strengthening of positive expectations and estimates of participants in economic activity, providing leading indicators for continued improvement in economic conditions. However, considerable uncertainty remains still accompanies the overall progression of the pandemic, and the real possibility of weakening growth momentum in the coming period, based on a series of short-medium-term economic impact of the pandemic (related to the logistics chain, production and transport costs, prices, etc.). For this reason, it becomes necessary to reassess the QMS, as the integration of new components is expected to demonstrate the continuation or not of observed trends and provide additional clues about the course of future domestic economic activity.
– Index of “Fear” KEPE GRIV. The imputed volatility index KEPE GRIV or “fear” index reflects the uncertainty of derivatives market participants for the expected short-term course of the Greek market and is calculated based on the prices of the options of the FTSE / XA Large Cap index. The price of the KEPE GRIV index increased in November 2021, reaching 32.40% on 30/11/2021 from 26.52% on 29/10/2021. The evolution of the index reflects an increase in uncertainty about the expected short-term course of the Greek market compared to the end of last month, reflecting the concern about the new Omicron mutation, which negatively affected the stock markets internationally. The index remained at levels below its historical average (since January 2004) for the Greek market, which is at 32.69%. In addition, in November 2021 the average daily value of the index decreased reaching 25.95% from 28.37% in October 2021.
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