Vaivém: Foods already fall at a slower pace in São Paulo

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Food had the sixth consecutive week of decline in the Fipe (Economic Research Institute Foundation) inflation index, according to data released this Tuesday (4th).

The retractions occur mainly in staple foods, but the pace of decline is already losing strength. Last month, the decline was 0.22%, the lowest in the last five weeks.

Even with the recent declines, food continues to weigh heavily on the consumer’s pocket, since the evolution of prices has been very accelerated in recent years, especially after 2020.

Data from Fipe, which monitors prices on a weekly basis in the capital of São Paulo, indicate that foodstuffs have increased by 53% since the beginning of 2019.

The lower pressure in recent weeks is a relief for consumers with lower purchasing power, since the pace of increases had been very strong. The accumulation in recent years and the loss of income of the population, however, still leave food out of the reach of a large part of the population.

Breakfast got cheaper in September. The average prices of these products, however, are still far from those of a few months ago. The main fall is that of milk, which was 12% cheaper in supermarkets.

Fipe shows, however, that, even with the fall, the product still accumulates an increase of 37% this year and 101% since January 2019.

Prices also drop in the countryside. In September, the producer received 14.7% less milk delivered to the industry. Ana Paula Negri, a researcher at Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics) says that the drop is partly due to the greater supply of milk.

The increase occurred because the high prices of recent months encouraged producers, who produced more. But the fall also occurs due to the lack of income of the population.

The demand, both for milk and other derivatives, after the rapid rise in prices in recent months, is lower, says the researcher.

Coffee stopped rising and had a retraction of 0.25% in September, a very small retreat for a product that has accumulated a high of 88% in recent years.

Frost and drought harmed the crop in Brazil. As it is the world’s largest producer, and international demand has not decreased, prices have risen, both in the domestic and foreign markets.

Sugar retreated 0.13% in September for consumers in São Paulo. External prices left the high levels registered from April to June. The internal cost of the product to the consumer, however, is still quite high.

Bun, due to the turmoil brought to the wheat market by the war in Ukraine and Russia, keeps prices high. This year alone, the increase is 17%.

Relief also came for products consumed at lunch, with drops in beans, rice and soybean oil. The current level of prices, however, is quite high, inhibiting the purchasing power of consumers.

Fipe’s four-weekly monitoring shows a lower rate of food reduction at the end of September, compared to previous weeks, which indicates that the pace of decline is losing steam.
Soybean oil, which fell 5.86% in September — down from 7.2% in the first four weeks of the month — leads food increases, accumulating 140% since the beginning of 2019.

Meat had little change in prices last month, but the consumer still feels the high level recorded by proteins in recent years.

Anyone who buys a kilo of chuck steak, considered a less noble cut, will pay 86% more than at the beginning of 2019. If it is a kilo of steak, the increase is 50%, percentages determined by the Sheetbased on data from Fipe.

Food inflation, which has been punishing consumers, does not have much room to fall in this last quarter.

Milk leaves the off-season, but cereals and proteins enter a phase of lower domestic supply and higher exports.

The calculation of inflation by Fipe allows this weekly monitoring because prices are released every four weeks. That is, Fipe always compares average prices every 30 days.

The first quadrissemana of September indicates the period between the last three of August, plus the first of September. The average values ​​of these 30 days are compared with those of the immediately preceding period.

The monthly for September —which would be the fourth quadrissemana— buys the average prices of the month, in relation to the immediately previous month.

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