Petrobras lowers prices more frequently in relation to increases, survey shows

Petrobras took longer to adjust prices at refineries this year in periods when values ​​were high in the foreign market compared to intervals in which fuels fell, according to a Reuters survey, based on data from the state oil company and the sector.

The history is yet another sign that the company may take time to pass on the recent increase in prices abroad, after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia, known as OPEC+, last week held the biggest cut oil production since 2020.

Analysts had already told Reuters that an internal readjustment – always unpopular -, at this point, was seen as unlikely, considering the political scenario, in which President Jair Bolsonaro is running for reelection, with the second round vote scheduled for the end of the month. .

Amid the second round of presidential elections in Brazil, in which President Jair Bolsonaro is running for reelection, the company may have changes in its board that could affect areas of the oil company that define fuel prices.

In the first half, when fuel prices abroad were soaring amid the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the intervals between price increases at the state oil company’s refineries ranged from 38 to 59 days for diesel and from 57 to 98 days. for gasoline.

When the commodity’s downward movement began in July this year, amid fears of recession abroad, among other issues, the period between reductions was between 6 and 38 days for diesel and between 9 and 17 days for Gasoline.

Petrobras’ pricing policy expects to follow international indicators, but avoid passing on volatilities to the domestic market. In this way, the price adjustments practiced in its refineries to the distributors do not immediately follow external movements.

Oil prices closed on Friday (7th) at a five-week high, boosted by the OPEC+ movement. On Monday, Brent oil was down about 1% around 12:40 pm.

price lag

The survey also pointed out that Petrobras remained longer with internal values ​​misaligned with external values ​​throughout the first half of the year, compared to the period of decline after July, considering company data and daily estimates published by the Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers ( Abicom).

In the case of diesel, prices on the domestic market remained below international prices in the first half of the year between 29 and 54 days before an increase by the oil company. When prices on the international market started to fall, the misalignment range dropped to 16 to 23 days.

For gasoline, while in the first semester the increases occurred within 66 days of an unfavorable international price, since July, the reductions in refineries were made between 8 and 20 days after a decreasing behavior of prices.

According to the most recent report by Abicom, the price lag for both gasoline and diesel from Petrobras in Brazil has remained continuous for 8 working days, registering, last Friday, a lag of 10% for gasoline and 13% for diesel.

At the moment, Petrobras has not readjusted diesel for 20 days and has not changed the price of gasoline for 38 days, well below the maximum periods in which it managed to hold off increases during the first half, of 59 days for diesel and 98 days for gasoline.

Furthermore, the current lag levels —according to Abicom’s calculations— are far from the peak seen, for example, two days before the March 11 readjustment of 30% for gasoline and 40% for diesel.

However, if, on the one hand, the reductions became more frequent in the second half of the year, the percentages of adjustments have been lower than those of previous increases. Diesel, for example, had a single readjustment of 24.9%, in March, while the biggest reduction applied in the second half was 5.78%, on September 20th.

Sought, Petrobras did not immediately comment on the matter, but has stated that it seeks not to immediately pass on to consumers the volatility of prices in the international market.