After 2 years, savings return to yield more than inflation

After completing two years of losses, the savings account returned to yield above inflation and recorded a real return of 0.02% positive in the 12 months ended in September, according to a survey prepared by TradeMap.

With the new deflation registered by the IPCA (Extended Consumer Price Index) in September, savings accumulate an appreciation of 7.19% within a year. Inflation rose 7.17% in the same period. Real profitability considers how much money earned after discounting inflation.

Despite the return to the positive field, the savings yield is still well below conservative investments.

The last time the investment’s return was positive was in August 2020, when it delivered a real yield of 0.45%.

During this interval, the worst moment for savers was in October 2021, when the yield turned negative at 7.59%, discounting inflation.

The IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) reported this Tuesday (11) that, once again under the impact of lower gasoline prices, Brazil registered deflation (price drop) of 0.29% in September.

It is the biggest drop in the IPCA for that month since the beginning of the historical series, in 1994, according to the institute.

This is the third consecutive decline in the country’s official inflation indicator. Analysts polled by Reuters, however, projected a sharper fall of 0.34%.

The IPCA had fallen 0.36% in August and 0.68% in July, a sequence of three lows not seen since 1998.

Savings earns less than half of the Selic

Despite the escalation of the Selic (basic interest rate), which went from the historic low of 2% in March 2021 to the current 13.75% per year, the application of the passbook continues with the yield unchanged at 6.17% per year. year, plus the TR (Reference Rate).

Savings remuneration is 0.5% per month whenever the Selic rate is above 8.5% per year. When the basic rate is up to 8.5%, the savings yield is equivalent to 70% of the Selic.

Investments considered to be low risk in fixed income continue to deliver high yields, even with the maintenance of basic interest rates in the economy at the last Copom meeting.

The prospect of decelerating inflation in the country is what increases the advantage of these applications, according to estimates by financial search engine Yubb.

Incentivized debentures and LCIs (Mortgage Letters of Credit) and LCAs (Agribusiness Letters of Credit) offer the best returns, according to the survey.

In addition to being favored by high interest rates and the prospect of falling inflation, these investments are exempt from IR (Income Tax).

Despite the low profitability, the most recent data from the BC (Central Bank) show that about 164 million people had some amount deposited in savings at the end of 2019.

In addition, research by C6 Bank/Ipec shows that the preference for saving also reaches the highest income people in the country.

The survey heard a thousand Brazilians from classes A and B with internet access, and showed that savings are the most present option in portfolios. About 28% indicated keeping some amount allocated in the application.
Then come CDBs, with 22%, and investment funds, with 16%.

Equities (14%), Treasury Direct (13%), LCIs and LCAs (9%) follow.

Savings records withdrawals of R$ 5.9 billion in September

Despite the deceleration of inflation, high interest rates that make financial conditions difficult for the population have contributed to increasing withdrawals from savings.

The savings account registered a net withdrawal of R$ 5.903 billion in September, in a scenario of high interest rates that reduces the competitiveness of the application against other investments, according to data from the Central Bank.

The leak was registered even in the face of payments by the federal government of boosted social benefits this election year. Transfers such as the Auxílio Brasil surcharge, the Auxílio Gás supplement and benefits for truck drivers and taxi drivers started in August.

As a result, the savings account accumulates a net withdrawal of R$ 91.071 billion between January and September this year, a record in the series. In the entire year of 2021, the data was negative by R$ 35.497 billion.