Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Bolsonarist discouragement, the vote of men and a message from 2018

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In the 2018 election, Jair Bolsonaro, now in the PL, beat Fernando Haddad (PT) by 55.1% to 44.9% of the valid votes in the second round. The Datafolha poll on the eve of that year’s vote gave 55.7% of the votes to Bolsonaro and 44.3% to Haddad.

“If the election were today”, what would be the important differences between this week’s Datafolha and the one on the eve of the 2018 vote? The most important and so far least noticed vote divergence is that of men. Changing the choices made by those who completed high school, those living in the Southeast and, of course, the poorest also matter.

Before continuing: no, the poll released this Friday IS NOT A PROGNOSIS of what will happen on the eve of this year’s second round or at the ballot box. This is just to point out notable differences between the poll on the verge of the second round of 2018 and this week’s voting intentions.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) now has 9 points more than Haddad’s vote on the eve of the second round of 2018.

Of course, the biggest differences in the vote in favor of the PT tend to happen among the largest categories of voters in the Datafolha sample: Catholics, families with declared incomes of less than two minimum wages, those who completed high school, those from the Southeast and, of course, , women and men.

But the proportional increase in votes for the PT (Lula ante Haddad) was also one of the highest among men, voters with high school education and in the Southeast (taking care with margins of error, etc.). The vote among evangelicals did not change. Among Catholics, yes, pro-Lula, with relevant weight.

Lula, for now, draws important games in which the PT lost badly in 2018, between men and voters with high school education, or almost a draw, as in the Southeast. The advantage among the poorest greatly increases. This means that a good part of the “repentant” are in these sets of voters. The female vote from the Northeast has decisive weight, but the bulk of the PT turn did not come from there.

These data somewhat weaken the thesis that Bolsonarism also advances because of the revolt of men against women who increasingly take charge of their own lives, but do not invalidate it. Nor do they indicate a new wave of anti-PT evangelical votes. Among these voters, Bolsonaro actually wins by a wide margin, 68% to 32%, but almost the same difference from the result of the poll the day before 2018 (69% to 31% of Haddad).

Leaving 2018 aside, the survey gives another sign of discouragement among Bolsonaristas. Datafolha asked if voters believe their lives will improve, get worse or stay the same if Lula or Bolsonaro wins.

Among the electorate in general, 41% believe their lives will improve under Lula; under Bolsonaro, 27%. Among Lula’s voters, 79% think their life will improve if their candidate wins; among Bolsonaro voters, 58%. It seems that Bolsonaristas are less excited.

But there is an obvious pitfall in reading these numbers. Opposition voters want change, sorry for the acacian comment. The voter of the incumbent, of the current governor, believes that, to a certain extent, the situation is already good. Across the country, 38% consider the Bolsonaro government “great/good”. Among the Bolsonarista electorate, the government is “great/good” for 80%.

Still, even with so much “great/good” rating, the impression of dismay remains. Why do only 58% of Bolsonaristas believe in additional life improvement? Are you that satisfied? Why do 39% think their life will stay the same?

The majority of the electorate for now says they want change; those who don’t want to have somewhat lowered expectations.

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