Analysts consulted by the Central Bank made minor adjustments to their main economic forecasts for this year and next, in the latest Focus poll before the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) to the Presidency of the Republic.
The survey was closed on Friday (28), before Lula on Sunday defeated reelection candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the second round of the presidential race. The PT will return to the presidency for the third time, after imposing an unprecedented defeat at the polls to an occupant of the Planalto Palace who was seeking a second term.
The expectations in Focus released this Monday (31) for the rise in the IPCA were respectively at 5.61%, 4.94% and 3.50% for 2022, 2023 and 2024. The only change was for this year, a adjustment of 0.01 percentage point upwards.
The center of the official inflation target for 2022 is 3.5%, going to 3.25% for 2023 and 3.00% for 2024, always with a tolerance margin of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
For GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the growth estimate in 2022 was 2.76%, but for 2023 it increased by 0.01 point, to 0.64%. As for monetary policy, it follows the projection in the weekly survey with a hundred economists that the basic interest rate Selic will stay at 13.75% and 11.25% this year and next.
A more notable change was the projection for Direct Investment in the Country in 2022, now calculated at US$ 74.21 billion, from US$ 68 billion previously. For 2023 the forecast for the IDP is now US$71 billion, up from US$70 billion the week before.
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