Who will Lula nominate for Finance, Petrobras, Treasury, BNDES? See quoted

Defining the ministerial team is always a complex task, but the third term of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) will require an additional level of political articulation. The choice of team will need to balance views of a broad front that brought together ten parties, in addition to economists from different currents and businessmen.

Among the portfolios that should be left to the PT itself are those in the economic area. It is taken for granted that the super-ministry commanded today by Paulo Guedes will be dismembered, but the final format and definition of functions will be left to the future minister himself.

Within the PT, the most cited for the economic area are federal deputy Alexandre Padilha (PT-SP), who is also cited for other functions (such as political negotiator or minister of Health); elected senator Wellington Dias (PT-PI); and Fernando Haddad, who ran for and lost the government of São Paulo.

People close to Lula say Haddad’s fate is anyone’s guess. His name is mentioned for the economic area, but the president-elect would also have already indicated that he wanted the ally again in the Ministry of Education (a portfolio that the paulista already occupied).

Running on the outside is Henrique Meirelles, who was president of Lula’s Central Bank and finance minister to Michel Temer (MDB). Announcing this Monday that he will coordinate the expansion of ACCrédito, the financial arm of the São Paulo Commercial Association that is preparing to become a digital bank, Meirelles told Sheet who “would have no major problems” in leaving these activities to join Lula’s government.

Pérsio Arida, in turn, is a close name to vice-president-elect Geraldo Alckmin (PSB). The economist is one of the fathers of the Real Plan and opened the vote for Lula in the second round. Another popular name among the market is that of economist Armínio Fraga, who also supported PT in the second round.

An indication of liberal economists, however, suffers political resistance because they are names historically associated with the PSDB.

Lula would have liked, and failed in other attempts, for Luiz Carlos Trabucco to accept to take over the Treasury. Today he is chairman of Bradesco’s board of directors.

Economist André Lara Resende, another Real father who supported Lula, should not have a management position. He may be appointed to represent Brazil in an international body, such as the World Bank or the IMF (International Monetary Fund), or act as a public policy maker.

Ministry of Planning must be recreated; see quoted

The new Minister of Finance, if the previous nomenclature is reconstituted, will define the model for the reimplantation of the portfolios linked to the Economy. One example is the future Ministry of Planning, Development and Management.

It is already known that Planning will have the responsibility to participate in the administrative reform and, by all indications, it must also accompany a broad plan of works, a kind of re-edition of the PAC (Growth Acceleration Program).

Former Minister of Planning Miriam Belchior is one of PT’s bets for a position in charge of the infrastructure works program.

If a non-PT party occupies the post of finance minister, it is taken for granted that there will be a party representative in the Ministry of Planning. The most quoted are Haddad, Aloizio Mercadante and Gleisi Hoffmann. In this case, Wellington Dias and Rui Costa, governor of Bahia at the end of his term, who is also quoted for the Civil House, are also considered.

Lula spoke a lot during the campaign that a participatory budget will replace the so-called secret budget, a system that sets aside almost R$19 billion of federal discretionary spending for parliamentary amendments in 2023. If something along these lines is implemented, Hoffmann’s name gains space.

It is not yet clear who will be in charge of the Federal Budget Secretariat, crucial for the beginning of the government — since it is necessary to increase expenses significantly next year, according to the PT’s plan. Thus, this attribution can either go to Planning or be under the tutelage of the Ministry of Finance (a model closer to the current one).

Felipe Salto and Bernard Appy are quoted for secretariats

Among the first names that may occupy secretariats in the area are economists Felipe Salto, who could go to the National Treasury Secretariat, and Bernard Appy — still without a defined position, but with a certain mission to unlock tax reform.

Appy was Secretary of Economic Policy and also head of the Extraordinary Secretariat for Economic-Fiscal Reforms, both linked to the Ministry of Finance, during the Lula administrations. Specialist in taxation, he is currently director of CCiF (Centro de Cidadania Fiscal) and co-author of one of the main tax reform proposals discussed in recent years, PEC (Proposed Amendment to the Constitution) 45.

A Ministry of Entrepreneurship and Creative Economy should also be created, which would replace the functions of the Micro and Small Enterprise secretariat, which had the status of a ministry.

Tebet can have Agriculture; Marcio France. with Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services (MDIC)

The future holder of a possible Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services is still undefined. Alckmin’s PSB asked to command the portfolio and, if he is granted, one of the main candidates is Márcio França, who was defeated in the dispute for a seat in the Senate by São Paulo.

Ministries related to the economy indirectly can also have strong names.

For the Ministry of Agriculture, a name that is now recurring is that of senator Simone Tebet (MDB). Third in the presidential race in the first round, she supported the campaign and her presence in Lula’s cabinet is seen as a certainty.

The Minister of Agriculture in the next Lula administration will have the additional role of reinforcing to the world the image that Brazilian agribusiness is aligned with the defense of the environment.

Tebet’s allies say that she preferred to occupy Education, but the tendency is for the portfolio to stay with the PT.

Representative Neri Geller (PP-MT) and Senator Carlos Fávaro (PSD-MT) are also cited as options to command Agriculture.

The PT also wants to reinforce the portfolio that will take care of the social area, including the reissue of Bolsa Família. For this, the name most remembered among Lula’s allies is that of former Minister of Social Development Tereza Campello.

Prates can take over Petrobras; Galípolo, BNDES

One of the names mentioned for the Ministry of Mines and Energy is Senator Jean Paul Prates (PT-RN), active in the energy area. Historically, the area was under the influence of the MDB. The tradition was broken in the administration of Jair Bolsonaro (PL), but it can be reconstituted by Lula – in this case, Prates, who had a strong presence in the oil and gas sector, is also seen as a strong option to take over Petrobras.

But the nomination must face some barriers in the Petrobras statute, which prohibits, among others, the appointment of a person who has acted, in the last 36 months, as a participant in the decision-making structure of a political party.

The betting exchange for the presidency of public banks was barely opened.

Economist Gabriel Galípolo may be nominated for the BNDES (National Bank for Social Economic Development). Former president of Banco Fator, he served in the campaign as an economic adviser to Lula and is well regarded in the party.

For Banco do Brasil and Caixa Econômica Federal, more technical names are expected.

with Reuters