The dollar advanced against the real this Thursday (8), with investors digesting the monetary policy statement from the Central Bank, which brought messages to the elected government that there is high uncertainty about the future of the country’s fiscal framework.
Around 9:08 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar rose 0.26%, to R$ 5.2212 on sale.
On B3, the first-maturity dollar futures contract rose 0.21% to R$5.2430.
In the session on Wednesday (7), the dollar fell sharply against the real, after data on the Chinese economy reinforced the perception of financial agents about a less intense rise in interest rates in the United States.
The greenback ended the day’s trading down 1.19%, trading at 5.2060 to sell.
The Brazilian Stock Exchange, on the other hand, ended the session in a fall, with the focus of local investors turned to the negotiations around the Transition PEC in Brasília, as well as to the last meeting of the year of the BC’s Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) ( Central bank).
The Ibovespa stock index closed this Wednesday with a 1.02% devaluation, trading at 109,068 points, pulled down by Vale shares, which dropped 3.5%, reflecting the slowdown of the Chinese economy.
On the US stock exchanges, the day was marked by high volatility, with indices oscillating between highs and lows throughout the entire trading session, ending business with moderate losses – the S&P 500 fell 0.19% and the Nasdaq had losses of 0.51%, while the Dow closed stable.
Director of the Correparti exchange broker, Jefferson Rugik says that the drop in the dollar this Wednesday came in line with the devaluation of the American currency against developed and emerging pairs this Wednesday. The DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of currencies, fell 0.50%.
According to Rugik, weaker-than-expected data from the Chinese economy help fuel investors’ expectations that the US central bank (Federal Reserve) may slow down the pace of interest rate hikes as of the next meeting of the monetary authority, scheduled for next week.
A less intense rise than initially expected for US interest rates, in turn, contributes to reducing the market’s bets on a strengthening of the dollar against other global currencies.
Official figures released by the Asian giant show that the Chinese trade balance had a sharp drop in November, above analysts’ forecasts, and at the sharpest pace in two and a half years.
Exports contracted 8.7% last month from the same period a year earlier, the worst performance since February 2020. Analysts had expected a 3.5% decline.
Weak demand, both in the country and also among commercial peers, production problems caused by the zero covid policy and the difficulties suffered by the real estate sector contributed to the results.
The director of Correparti adds that the dehydration in the Transition PEC (Proposed Amendment to the Constitution), with lower values than the elected government had been signaling, also favored the performance of the exchange rate this Wednesday.
On Tuesday (6), in the first articulation test of the elected government, the PT managed to approve the Transition PEC —although with a lower value and shorter time for the presentation of a new fiscal rule.
The proposal approved by the CCJ (Constitution and Justice Commission) of the Senate increases the spending ceiling for the inclusion of Bolsa Família for a period of two years and reduces the total fiscal impact to R$ 145 billion annually in 2023 and 2024 —R$ 30 billion unless shown initially.
The text was approved by the CCJ in a symbolic vote, without vote counting, and now depends on the endorsement of 49 of the 81 senators in the plenary in two shifts. The session is scheduled for this Wednesday (7).
Petrobras shares retreat after announcement of the departure of the company’s president
On the local stock exchange, Petrobras shares rose more than 1% at the beginning of trading, but reversed the trend and ended down 1.13% in the case of preferred shares, and 1.34% for common shares.
The movement in the shares came in the wake of the announcement of the departure of Caio Paes de Andrade from the presidency of the company to take over the secretariat in the new government of São Paulo.
Analyst at Guide Investimentos, Gabriel Gracia says that the departure was already expected, with the probable change in command of the oil company by the elected government.
“The definition of the next president, as well as new investment plans and pricing policies, are essential for a proper assessment of the return potential for Petrobras shares”, says the analyst in the report.
JPMorgan analysts, on the other hand, assess that it is not yet the time to buy Petrobras shares, even after the fall of more than 20% since the maximums established in October, in the face of uncertainties about what will change in the state-controlled oil company with the new government from next year.
“We continue to believe that it is still too early to buy Petrobras”, stated Rodolfo Angele and his team in a report sent to clients this Wednesday. “Investors will demand more clarity from the new administration before share prices fully reflect fundamentals. In our opinion, it will take at least three to six months in the new administration for us to better understand the direction the company will take. In the meantime, we prefer to stay out of it.” from Petrobras.”
Investors’ attention also turned on Wednesday to the BC’s Copom meeting, which kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting and will end 2022 with the base rate (Selic) at 13.75% per year.
Copom’s decision was in line with the financial market’s consensual projection that the Selic rate would remain stable at 13.75%. A survey carried out by Bloomberg showed that this was the unanimous expectation among the economists consulted.
For next year, market distrust is growing in the face of a scenario of greater fiscal uncertainty. There is fear in relation to plans to increase public spending by the elected government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and their effects on inflation. The lack of definition regarding the new fiscal framework also generates fear among investors.
With Reuters
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