The dollar this Tuesday (27) rose in the first trades, after having opened the last week of the year on the eve in high in session of reduced volumes.
At 9:07 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar rose 0.38%, to 5.2314 reais on sale.
On the eve, the American currency closed with an increase of 0.81%, quoted at R$ 5.2080 on sale. The Ibovespa, the benchmark for shares traded on the Brazilian stock exchange, fell 0.87% to 108,737 points.
The Central Bank announced this Tuesday that it will sell up to US$2 billion in sale auctions combined with purchase auctions in the interbank market, in an operation that it resorts to mainly in times of lack of liquidity. Proposals will be received from 10:30 am to 10:35 am and sales operations will be settled on Thursday.
Exchange and the Stock Exchange were pressured by increased expectations for high inflation and interest rates, in a session also affected by the low volume of negotiations because the markets in the United States and Europe remained closed due to the extended Christmas holiday.
In the futures interest market, the DI rate, which reflects loans negotiated between financial institutions and serves as a reference for the credit sector, increased for contracts with maturities in the short and medium terms.
According to analysts, the reason for this increase was the Focus report by the Central Bank, released this Monday (26). The survey pointed out that the market raised its projection for the basic interest rate (Selic) in 2023, predicting that it will close the year at 12%, surpassing the 11.75% predicted a week ago.
There is expectation that the Central Bank will have less space to reduce monetary tightening after closing this year with the rate at 13.75%.
The bulletin also indicated a marginal increase in projections for inflation next year, to 5.23%. Before, it was 5.17%. The target ceiling for 2023 is 4.75%. The projection for administered prices in the period rose from 6.23% to 6.53%. For 2024, the expectation for the IPCA increased from 3.50% to 3.60%.
Étore Sanchez and André Coelho, from Ativa Investimentos, assessed that the last Focus of the year, after the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of Gastança was approved, registers a “significant worsening of the conjuncture”.
Elcio Cardozo, a partner at Matriz Capital, reinforced that the release of the Focus bulletin brought concerns to investors by projecting slightly higher inflation for 2023 than in the last bulletin, which contributed to the rise in future interest rates.
Cardozo said, however, that the good performance of the sector of the Exchange linked to the export of metallic minerals prevented a greater fall of the Ibovespa.
Among the news that may favor the appreciation of important raw materials for exporters with a presence on the Brazilian Stock Exchange, as is the case of iron ore explored by Vale, the highlight is this Monday’s statement from health authorities in China.
Reuters agency reported that Beijing will no longer require quarantine for travelers arriving in the country from January 8.
In addition, the country had announced earlier that it intends to adopt less stringent rules for treating patients, which, according to The Wall Street Journal, is a clear sign that Beijing will really end the quarantine.
Without negotiations this Monday, the price of a barrel of Brent oil rose 2.94% last Friday (23), quoted at US$ 83.92 (R$ 435.25). Brent serves as a reference for prices practiced by companies in the sector in Brazil, such as Petrobras.
The Bloomberg news agency attributed the rise in raw material to threats from Russia that it could cut its production in the middle of winter in the northern hemisphere.
The cut would be a response by the government of Vladimir Putin to price limits on Russian goods imposed by the West as a form of sanction for the War in Ukraine.
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