New vehicle sales fall in 2022 and frustrate automakers’ forecasts

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The projections made and redone throughout 2022 did not materialize, and the year ended with a decrease in registrations of light and heavy vehicles compared to 2021.

Data based on Renavam (National Register of Motor Vehicles) show that 2.104 million zero-kilometer cars, trucks and buses were sold between January and December. As a result, there was a drop of 0.7% in sales.

Although Christmas and New Year’s Eve fell into weekends, the month of December was impacted by the World Cup and recorded a lower than expected number. The last month of the year ended with 216,900 licenses — the best result of the year, but there was an expectation of surpassing 250,000 units.

Anfavea (association of automakers) started 2022 optimistic and predicted an increase of 8.5% in registrations. However, throughout the first semester, the failures in the supply of components registered since the beginning of the pandemic persisted.

The projection was revised in July, when the entity started to believe in a growth of 1% over the previous year. This objective was also not achieved.

Despite the frustration, it is necessary to consider that there were problems beyond the shortage of semiconductors and other parts, such as tires and molded steel parts.

The first quarter of 2022 was marked by an increase in cases of Covid-19 due to the omicron variant and by rains across Brazil, which made travel difficult and established other priorities for consumers.

In the following three months, stoppages in production lines were accompanied by rising interest rates and a consequent restriction on financing. But if there is good news, it is in the accumulated results between July and December.

When comparing the second half of 2022 with the same period of 2021, there is a growth of 13.4% in sales of light and heavy vehicles. The result encouraged dealers and is mainly due to the improvement in the supply of parts, which tends to normalize throughout 2023.

“We are currently in a period of recovery in the pace of car sales and the regularization of inventories”, says Eloy Braz, general director of the Líder group, which has dealerships for the brands Chevrolet, Fiat, Ford, Honda (motorcycles), Hyundai, Jeep , Toyota and Volkswagen.

“We spent the last few years working with a queue, the consumer had to wait three, four months to receive his purchase, and this was a reflection of the pandemic and the lack of chips, which delayed production. But there was an increase in supply, we are with an almost normal level of delivery”, says the executive of the Líder group, which is also betting on the leasing segment.

“This market has great potential and may reach 20% of the segment within the group soon.”

Braz’s vision in relation to subscription cars is the same as that of several entrepreneurs in the automotive sector, who have invested in fleets. As a result, direct sales – the modality in which rental companies are the automakers’ main customers – surpassed retail sales throughout 2022. The sales mix will be released this Thursday (5th) by Fenabrave (association of vehicle distributors).

Not by chance, the best-selling car of 2022 had about 70% of its license plates registered in the direct sale modality. It was the Fiat Strada pickup, which ended the year with 112,400 units sold, according to Jato Dynamics consultancy.

In addition to detailing sales results for 2022, Fenabrave will reveal its projections for 2023. Anfavea will do the same on Friday (6th), when it will also release production results over the past year.

Ford has already given its prognosis: the company expects sales to accumulate a 5% increase throughout 2023, which would mean the registration of 2.2 million light and heavy vehicles of all brands.

In the used segment, there was a 12% drop in negotiations between 2021 and 2022. Trade in this segment involved 13.2 million units last year.

“We consider the result a good one due to the uncertainties and instabilities that the economy suffered with the war in Ukraine, increase in interest rates, greater restrictions on credit and the political scenario in the presidential elections”, says, in a note, Enilson Sales, president of Fenauto (an association that brings together used vehicle dealers).

Sales believes that, based on the first actions of the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), the economy will follow a trend of balance, favoring sales.

In common, associations and companies linked to the automotive sector expect credit relief. “Our country, historically, suffers from high interest rates, but we hope that there is a reduction in the Selic rate so that, with greater credit and support from automakers and banks, we can continue growing”, says Eloy Braz, from the Líder group.

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