A significant improvement in the economic climate in December shows an IOBE survey


The rise converges with the general European trend, despite individual national differences

At The economic climate index increased by 104.3 points in December compared to 101.4 points in November. in one of the highest performances of the last 9 months.

According to an IOBE economic situation survey, this rise converges with the general European trend, despite individual national differences. The rise comes from the improvement of expectations mainly in Industry and less in Services, while consumer confidence also recovers to the levels of the beginning of the year.

On the contrary, and despite the festive season, expectations in retail trade are deteriorating, as well as in private construction. The prolonged summer has delayed the impact of energy costs in terms of heating, while the general, albeit small, decline in the prices of energy goods has facilitated a number of sectors of the economy. Uncertainties regarding inflation and in the wider international environment remain strong, however, it seems that they have been integrated into expectations to a large extent and their weakening is expected gradually during the year.

According to the survey, as we enter a pre-election environment, an even greater improvement in the climate index can be expected. Such an improvement is systematically recorded in almost all election years, since 1981, as households and businesses discount a series of measures that will favor them, temporarily or post-election. Overall, it seems that the upcoming elections are activating positive estimates, at least for the short term.

In more detail:

– in manufacturing, the negative balance of estimates for orders and demand weakened significantly, estimates for inventories were unchanged and positive forecasts for production in the coming months strengthened slightly.

– in construction, the negative forecasts for production fell sharply, while on the contrary the positive forecasts for employment weakened significantly.

– in the retail trade, estimates for current sales fell significantly, with the level of inventories remaining at the same levels, while forecasts for the short-term development of sales fell significantly.

– in services, the positive estimates for the current business situation changed slightly, as did those for demand, while forecasts for the short-term development of demand improved significantly.

– in consumer confidence, households’ negative forecasts for the country’s economic situation dropped significantly, as did the corresponding ones for their own economic situation. At the same time, forecasts for major markets remained unchanged and the intention to save increased slightly.

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