Dollar retreats, but tension between government and BC remains on the radar


The dollar retreated moderately against the real shortly after the opening this Wednesday (8), following external movement and with investors adjusting positions after the recent rise in the currency, although recurrent criticisms of the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to the Central Bank maintained some caution in the domestic market.

At 9:12 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar retreated 0.29%, to R$ 5.1860 in the sale.

On the B3, at 9:12 am (Brasília time), the first contract dollar futures contract fell 0.6%, at R$ 5.2020.

In the last session, the dollar closed up 0.51%, at R$ 5.2013 on sale, registering the highest level since January 20 (5.2086) and engaging a third consecutive session of gains, accumulating appreciation in the period of more than 3%.

The Stock Exchange closed lower and the dollar higher this Tuesday, with investors attentive to tensions between the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and the Central Bank, commanded by Roberto Campos Neto.

The Ibovespa retreated 0.82%, closing at 107,829 points. The index has already accumulated a drop of almost 4% in February. The commercial dollar closed at an increase of 0.46%, touching the level of R$ 5.20, quoted at R$ 5.199. In the last three sessions, the currency appreciated 3% against the real.

Interest rates closed lower for shorter maturities, and slightly higher for longer ones. Contracts for 2024 fell from 13.80% at the close of this Monday (6) to 13.68% per year. Upon maturity in 2025, the rate dropped from 13.22% to 13.15%. For 2027, rates rose from 13.09% to 13.19%.

This decrease in the difference between longer and shorter rates indicates that the policies advocated mainly by President Lula may make it difficult for the Central Bank to control inflation and lower interest rates, according to analysts.

“[A independência] it is very important for many different reasons. The main reason, in the case of the Central Bank’s autonomy, is to disconnect the monetary policy cycle from the political cycle because they have different lenses and different interests”, said Campos Neto at an event in Miami, in the United States.

This Tuesday, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, adopted a more conciliatory tone, after the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), which maintained the basic interest rate at 13.75% per annum.

“The Copom minutes came out better than the communiqué. A more extensive, more analytical minutes, making important points about the work of the Ministry of Finance. A friendlier minutes in relation to the next steps that need to be taken”, stated the minister.

On the other hand, Haddad signaled that there will be a salary adjustment for federal civil servants this year.

In New York, the indices closed higher, after the speech by Jerome Powell, president of the Federal Reserve (Fed), the American central bank.

According to comment by analyst Michael Feroli, from JP Morgan, in an interview with the Bloomberg agency, Powell’s speech this Tuesday did not have a very different tone from that presented last week, before the disclosure of job creation above expectations by the market.

That gave a relief to investors, who had been expecting a tougher speech. Thus, the Dow Jones rose 0.78%, the S&P 500 closed up 1.29% and the Nasdaq advanced 1.90%.

With Reuters

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