With the Selic rate entering 13.75% in 2023 and the market’s bet that it will continue in double digits for a good part of the year, investment in fixed income, as in 2022, should once again stand out in portfolios of investors.
Post-fixed public, bank and corporate bonds issued by large companies, which follow the yield delivered by the basic interest rate, and inflation-indexed bonds, which offer a fixed rate plus the variation of the IPCA (National Index of Prices to the Consumer ), are among the most recommended by market specialists given the scenario of economic and political uncertainty expected ahead.
With regard to the Stock Exchange and investments abroad, the assessment is that these are alternatives that should not be completely discarded within a well-diversified investment portfolio, although they require greater attention when making the selection. of the best horses to get through a year that promises to be marked by volatility in global markets.
“2022 has been a strong year for fixed income, and the expectation for next year is that this trend will continue. fixed income”, says Renato Ramos, partner and director of fixed income at manager Empírica Investimentos.
“In 2023 we should have a scenario similar to this one, with fixed income again at the forefront, although perhaps in a smaller volume”, says Erick Scott Hood, executive responsible for Inter’s products and portfolios area.
Ramos, from Empírica, recalls that the change of government and the ongoing definitions regarding fiscal policy from 2023 should maintain a high degree of uncertainty in the markets, with further increases in inflation expectations cannot be ruled out.
Persistent inflationary pressure, in turn, should make it difficult for the BC (Central Bank) to start reducing interest rates, says Ramos. In the Focus report, economists consulted by the BC forecast the Selic rate at 12.50% at the end of December 2023.
The signs of expansion in public spending by the elected government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) not only made it difficult for the Selic to fall, but also put on the radar of investors the possibility that new interest rate increases would be necessary to control the debt trajectory. .
“The rates expected by the market are the starting point for the yields on fixed income securities. Therefore, we expect another year of protagonism for the class [de renda fixa]with high returns”, analysts at XP Investimentos, who project a stable Selic rate at 13.75% by the end of 2023.
The director of Empírica adds that, in the global scenario, the developed countries will continue their battle to tame prices at historically high levels, with a possible contamination to Brazil through a kind of imported inflation.
According to Ramos, in this scenario, post-fixed securities, which are characterized by high liquidity and lower-than-average volatility, represent the best alternative for the money that investors want to keep, focusing on the short term, in order to day-to-day bills or any emergencies.
If the intention is to keep the funds invested for a little longer, the director of Empírica recommends inflation-indexed bonds, which offer a real return of around 6% per year and protection against the risk of price increases by cause of economic and fiscal uncertainties in the coming years.
Along the same lines, Rafaela Vitória, Chief Economist at Inter, stated that, given the uncertainties in the current transition scenario, he recommends allocation in fixed income distributed mainly between fixed rates pegged to the CDI and indexed to inflation.
“The NTN-B bond rates [indeados à inflação] above 6% are at a very high level, already reflecting the scenario of greater risk, in addition to offering protection against a more persistent inflation”, says the expert, adding that private credit securities of solid companies and with exemption from IR (Income Tax) Income) are also good options to compose the portfolio.
Hood says that, in a first allocation in fixed income, investors with a more conservative profile tend to look for options such as Treasury Direct public bonds and CDBs from large financial institutions covered by the FGC (Credit Guarantee Fund).
For those with a more daring profile, private credit bonds can bring an additional return of around 0.50 percentage points in comparison with Treasury bond premiums, depending on the specific characteristics of each operation, says the executive at the Inter. “An investor can never enter into a private credit issue to earn less than the Treasury.”
Stock market requires caution, but should not be forgotten, experts argue
With regard to investment in stocks, the majority of experts’ assessment is that the Stock Exchange should continue to be subject to intense volatility, in a scenario of high interest rates that will continue to put pressure on the fair value of shares. In 2022, the Ibovespa index accumulated an increase of 4.69%.
Allocating a smaller part of the portfolio to stocks is important to obtain a good diversification of investments, even for the investor not to run the risk of missing some unexpected movement of strong and quick recovery of the markets, says Hood. “We always defend diversification, but of course giving more space to the asset class that should perform better, which is now fixed income.”
The bank has a projection of 118,000 for the Ibovespa in December 2023, which implies a potential appreciation of 7.5% compared to the end of 2022.
Inter assesses that, for next year, positive expectations remain focused on more defensive sectors and that should be less affected by the environment of high interest rates, such as electricity and sanitation (utilities), banks and insurance companies.
A little more optimistic, the team of analysts at XP projects the Ibovespa to reach 125 thousand points at the end of next year, which corresponds to an increase of 14%.
Among the preferences on the Exchange, XP analysts cite commodity exporters, especially the oil and gas sector.
“We remain optimistic about oil and gas prices. We believe we are in a ‘bull market’ [mercado de alta prolongada] of a few years, essentially caused by years of underinvestment in the sector”, point out XP analysts, who indicate PetroRio’s shares in the recommended portfolio of shares for December.
Despite the challenging global scenario, analysts defend allocation in assets abroad
Experts also point out that, despite 2023 being designed as a year of challenges on the international scene, with interest rate hikes by central banks bringing with it the risk of a recession, investment in dollars or in assets abroad must be part of the investor planning.
Hood, from Inter, states that, regardless of the situation in the global markets, the advice passed on to clients is that they always have some part of their portfolio between 5% and 10% destined abroad, either via direct allocation in dollars or through global equity investment funds. “We defend portfolio diversification not only in the local market, but also geographically, even as a form of protection”, he says.
XP analysts also say that identifying the exact moment to enter and exit the stock market is almost impossible, and that, being out, the investor runs the risk of losing a relevant part of the profitability.
“Those who believe in the market’s recovery win by remaining invested, as periods of decline consolidate some of the main days for recovery. entry point and exit point.
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