Mônica Bergamo: Bankers mobilize due to agreement between Haddad and BC that ‘barks loudly’

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The financial market mobilized to try to improve the relationship between the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, and the Central Bank. The two have a meeting scheduled for Thursday (16), at the first meeting of the year of the National Monetary Council, made up of them and the Minister of Planning, Simone Tebet.

One of the biggest bankers in Brazil spoke last week with the president of BC, Roberto Campos Neto, in Miami. Then he sought Fernando Haddad to encourage the sewing of a peace agreement.

Several agents from the world of finance who have dialogue with the PT and the BC mobilized in the same direction. The expectation is that Lula may also adhere to an armistice. The president has maintained harsh criticism of the institution.

The banker told the column that Campos Neto signaled that his idea is not to take the country into recession, keeping interest rates high. The expectation is that, after the measures announced by Fernando Haddad in relation to the fiscal deficit, interest rates may drop in the coming quarters.

“The Central Bank often needs to bark loudly to act softly because, if it barks low, it will have to act more harshly,” said the same banker to the column.

Afterwards, he sought out Fernando Haddad and says he told the minister his impressions on the supposed good will of Campos Neto, who would be a man of “dialogue”.

The interlocutor of the BC president and Haddad believes that the discomfort caused by the release of a statement from the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) saying that interest rates could remain high until the end of 2023 could have been avoided if the government had waited the disclosure of the minutes in which the decision to maintain rates at 13.75%, at the beginning of the month, was detailed.

The minutes were released six days after the announcement. In it, the members of the committee make complimentary references to the measures announced by Haddad, who promises to bring the fiscal deficit to zero next year.

The Copom communiqué infuriated the economic team and President Lula himself, who saw an attempt by Roberto Campos Neto to take Brazil into recession, harming the government dramatically: the squeeze would affect mainly the low-income population, the only range of the electorate in which, according to polls released on the eve of the presidential election, Lula was victorious.

High inflation, carried by food, also harms the same segment of the electorate that voted for Lula.

The president’s promises of improving people’s lives would go down the drain with a recession, compromising his popularity and, consequently, the very stability of his government.

The Central Bank’s policy has been criticized by economists such as André Lara Resende. In an interview with Canal Livre that aired on Sunday (12), he said that Brazil’s fiscal situation does not justify such high rates and stated that they could lead the country to a “very serious recession”.

Campos Neto is identified as a Bolsonarist by the Lula government.

He was appointed to the post by Jair Bolsonaro and even attended business dinners in support of the previous government’s economic measures.

The president of the Central Bank even spoke at an event, when he admitted that he was criticized for attending meetings with politicians. But he said that since Bolsonaro’s ministers were “technical”, he could mingle with them.

Campos Neto was also a supporter of Tarcísio de Freitas’s candidacy for the governorship of São Paulo and honored his tenure in office.

After the criticisms made by Lula, several politicians aligned with the government, such as Jaques Wagner (PT-BA) and the leader of the government in the Senate, Fabiano Contarato (PT-ES) came forward to say that the law that guarantees the autonomy of the Bank Center will not be modified.

Other agents in the financial market also sought out Campos Neto and the government in search of a middle ground that would ease Lula’s criticism of the Central Bank.


MY DEAR FRIEND

Lawyer Marco Aurélio de Carvalho, coordinator of the Prerogativas group, was honored at a dinner hosted by lawyer Fábio Tofic Simantob, at his home, in São Paulo, last week. Justices of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) Ricardo Lewandowski and Dias Toffoli were there.

with BIANKA VIEIRA, KARINA MATIAS It is MANOELLA SMITH

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