The return in primary surpluses from this year, which will increase steadily at least until 2028, with a steady de-escalation of the public debt without raising taxes, predicts for Greece the International Monetary Fund, in its report on the fiscal prospects of its members (Fiscal Monitor).

Specifically, it expects the primary surplus to stand at 0.4% of GDP this year, rising to 1.4% in 2024, and continuing to rise to reach 2% in 2028.

If interest on public debt is also taken into account, the overall fiscal balance is expected to have a deficit of 3.7% of GDP, which will decrease to 2.8% in 2024 and to 1.9% gradually by 2028.

The improvement in fiscal figures is expected to result from the largest reduction of public expenditure in relation to public revenue.

General government spending is projected to decline from 55.5% of GDP last year to 50.3% this year and 47% in 2024 and continue to decline to reach 43.7% in 2028.

On the other hand, revenue is expected to decline from 51.5% last year to 47.9% this year and gradually to 43% in 2028.

For public debt, the IMF predicts that it will decrease further this year to 166% of GDP in 2022 and will continue to decelerate to 160.5% in 2024 to reach 143.6% in 2028.

The Fund notes the large reduction in Greek debt last year to 177.4% from 200.7% of GDP in 2021, helped by strong growth and inflation.

Countries with high initial levels of debt, combined with unexpected inflation and strong growth, such as Greece, had significant debt reductionhe says in his report.

Inflation also contributed to the decline in global debt from 95.5% in 2021 to 92.1% of GDP in 2022, but it expects it to rise again to 93.1% in 2023.

For the Eurozone, public debt is expected to decrease to 89.8% this year from 90.9% last year, while for the US a slight increase is forecast to 122.2% from 121.7%.