Deutsche Bank estimates that the Greek economy will grow by 2.4% this year, with rates of 1.5% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

These estimates are close to Morgan Stanley’s corresponding forecast, which pegs growth at 2.5% for 2023, and are a significant upgrade from the German bank’s forecast of just 0.3% growth this year. investment house at the end of 2022. In fact, they are announced at a time when Deutsche Bank is proceeding with a drastic downgrading of its estimates for the Eurozone.

According to the new forecasts of the German investment house, inflation in Greece will decline to 4.3% this year, to 2.1% in 2024 and to 1.8% in 2025.

The current account deficit will be 8% of GDP in 2023, 6% in 2024 and 5% in 2025, while the fiscal deficit is projected at 2.4% of GDP, 1.3% and 1.2% respectively.

Against the positive picture of its estimates for the Greek economy, Deutsche Bank warns that market forecasts for the entire Eurozone are overly optimistic. Its analysts expect growth of just 0.5% this year, while sharply downgrading their forecast for 2024 rates to 0.5% from 1% previously. “We expect sustainable growth only from mid-2024. Until then, the stagnant conditions that have been widely seen in the Eurozone recently will continue,” they say.

Deutsche Bank estimates that structural inflation is slowly peaking at a high level, against the backdrop of a “tight” labor market and persistent wage growth. A temporary drop in the core consumer price index below target in 2024-2025 is expected to test the ECB’s resolve to fight inflation, analysts said.

In this context, the house estimates that the ECB’s interest rate will end up at 3.75% in July, without, however, completely ruling out the scenario of a further increase to 4-4.25% in September-October. Following these, Deutsche Bank now estimates that the next round of monetary easing will start later, in September 2024 (instead of June of that year), with the ECB cutting interest rates to 2.50% by the end of 2025 (instead of 2%).