Germany has already begun looking for alternative gas suppliers in the event of a halt to imports from Russia due to tensions in Ukraine.
Natural gas accounts for more than 25% of Germany’s energy consumption, all of which is imported cheaply via pipelines from Norway and Russia.
But as tensions rise in Ukraine, German politicians are beginning to worry. In an almost complete reversal of the German position, Berlin is now considering importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US, Qatar and other potential suppliers, according to a statement to Parliament by German Vice Chancellor and Economy and Climate Protection Minister Robert Hubeck.
If gas cannot be imported through pipelines, Germany “will have to buy LNG,” he said at a January 26 meeting of the Federal Parliament.
However, the importation of “liquefied natural gas would require the necessary infrastructure”, he added, and there are currently no import terminals in Germany.
The introduction of liquefied natural gas was considered so far financially unprofitable in Germany and therefore most projects were closed.
The country once sought to build liquefied natural gas terminals in the ports of Brunsbittel and Stande, but these projects “so far could not be privately funded,” Hubeck explained.
“We will now tackle this issue vigorously,” he promised, adding that US gas supplies would not be preferred. “Where liquefied natural gas will come from will also be determined by the market. “We should buy where LNG is cheaper.”
Habeck’s comments on the LNG signal a change of policy for Germany, which could also benefit neighboring Czech Republic. Germany does not have LNG terminals, but could import LNG from neighboring Belgium (one terminal), France (four), Lithuania (one), the Netherlands (one) and Poland (one).
Until now, security of gas supply has been taken for granted because of Germany’s “close interdependence” with Russia as the main supplier, said Markus Kreber, head of the German utility RWE.
“We need Russian gas “Russia needs foreign exchange,” Kreber told the German newspaper FAZ. He also pointed out, however, that “there have been tensions in the past, but gas has always been coming” to Germany.
But as Germany’s gas reserves reach record lows and Gazprom appears reluctant to meet its own reserve requirements, positions are shifting.
“On 11 January 2022, the quantities of stocks at the European UGS facility [Υπόγεια Αποθήκευση Φυσικού Αερίου] “They have reached historically low levels in the long history of observation,” Russia’s state-owned Gazprom wrote on Twitter.
“UGS facilities in Germany and France are 37% and 36% full,” the company added.
“If all gas supplies from Russia were to be stopped, which would mean ‘very cold and expensive prices’ for Germany,” Markus Sonder, Bavaria’s prime minister, told FAZ.
At stake is industry, not households
The question of whether German homes will cool down as soon as “Putin closes the gas valve” has been on the minds of Germans since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
But this is unlikely to happen at the moment according to experts. “No, it will not be cold” in German apartments if gas stops flowing from Russia, explained Simon Müller, director of German activities at the Agora Energiewende think tank in Berlin.
The increase in “liquefied natural gas imports” and “large gas storage facilities” could combined to cover a “short-term” cut in imports from Russia, Mueller explains, “provided the winter is not too harsh. ».
And if things turn out worse, the industry will be cut off first and “household heating needs will be protected,” he said.
In fact, there are already contingency plans. A 59-page document from the BDEW Energy Association identifies “shutdown options” in the event of a gas shortage, most of which are industry-related.
In case of nationwide gas shortage, BDEW is also obliged to activate an early warning and inform the competent ministry.
But Germany has not got there yet. “Security of supply is still guaranteed,” the economy ministry said when asked by EURACTIV if BDEW had activated an early warning.
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