The president of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), defends the approval of the project that freezes the collection of ICMS (Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services) on fuels before Congress advances in the discussion of the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) that affects federal taxes.
“We should focus on the text of PLP 11, which the Chamber voted and is in the Senate, so that we can modulate the freezing of ICMS prices at a value that is fair for the population,” Lira told leaf. “Then we follow a more rational discussion of the PECs.”
In the same vein, Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) said this Tuesday (8) that the fuel PEC presented in the House – dubbed “PEC Kamikaze” by the economic team – may not be necessary. According to him, it will be necessary to evaluate the progress of projects that are already in progress.
“In the Senate, what we have to assess is the need to consider some more point that is of a constitutional nature. If eventually we manage to materialize all these initiatives in infra-constitutional proposals, there would, in theory, be no need for the PEC”, he stated.
The debate on the direction of the fuel PEC has generated division within the government itself and also in the National Congress.
Two texts with different scopes were presented by parliamentarians from the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. While the first was written in the Civil House, the second received the signature of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), son of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
The Senate text already has 31 signatures (27 were needed), including those of the government leader in Congress, Eduardo Gomes (MDB-TO), and of senators Marcio Bittar (MDB-AC), Carlos Viana (MDB-MG) and Marcos Rogério (PL-RO), who also represent the government in political negotiations.
The economic team is against the two proposals and is on alert with the risk that the version adopted by the senators will cause an impact of more than R$ 100 billion.
The bill that deals with the state tax can be voted on on the 15th in the Senate plenary, but must undergo adjustments to avoid freezing the ICMS at a high level. In this scenario, the text will need to be considered again by the Chamber.
The version approved by the deputies provides for a fixed charge of ICMS per liter of fuel, whose ceiling would be the value obtained from the current rate on the average price of the two previous years.
The idea was to capture the lowest prices practiced in 2019 and 2020. With the turn of the year, however, the wording adopted makes the calculation base the average prices in 2020 and 2021, already higher. Without adjustments, the gain to the consumer would be small or nil.
“The Senate could change the text of the Chamber to find a more comfortable delta (calculation base), the text comes back and we keep the agreement”, said Lira.
Pacheco reaffirmed that the Senate should vote on two proposals on fuel next Tuesday (15) and that they are in advanced processing. He said that the package already contains advances to try to contain the rise in prices.
The Senate president argued that the two proposals already deal with the freezing of ICMS and the creation of an equalization account to mitigate the impact of variations in international prices. In addition, according to him, there is an understanding in the government and in Congress about the need to reduce federal taxes, especially on diesel oil and cooking gas – items included in the two PECs.
“Eventually if there is anything that remains, that requires a constitutional amendment, it is already there. [a PEC] with enough signatures to be processed within the necessary urgency to be able to proceed. The important thing is that we really have all these initiatives put on paper, with the search for as much convergence as possible”, he said.
Regarding the controversial PEC of the Senate, Pacheco said that it still needs to be matured and that it should not be “demonized”.
The president said that Congress is giving a “nod” to the advances that can be made with the processing of the two most advanced proposals.
A meeting that took place this Tuesday morning (8) with the economic team and the rapporteur of these projects, Senator Jean Paul Prates (PT-RN), discussed details of the text. One of the proposals presented to Guedes’ team is the use of Petrobras dividends to finance the equalization account, but the president of the Senate pointed out that there is resistance from the government.
The approval of the PLP that changes the collection of ICMS is also defended by the team of Paulo Guedes, who ended up being run over in the discussion of the PECs.
The Minister of Economy even accepts zero PIS/Cofins rates on diesel to soften the impact of the high fuel price on freight costs and, consequently, on consumers’ pockets. The measure would cost about R$ 17 billion.
However, the Economy was trampled by the broader PECs and still seeks to outline a strategy that avoids the collapse of public accounts, while other members of the government are divided between the proposals.
On the one hand, court ministers prefer the text presented by deputy Christino Áureo (PP-RJ), which was created in the Civil House and allows the reduction of tax rates levied by the Union, states and municipalities on fuels such as diesel, gasoline and gas.
On the other hand, ministers in the political area support the proposal by Senator Carlos Fávaro (PSD-MG), which not only relieves taxes, but also allows the creation of a diesel aid of R$ 1,200 monthly, expanding the gas aid for families who receive Auxílio Brasil (a program that replaced Bolsa Família, a brand of PT administrations) and transfer R$ 5 billion to city halls to avoid a tariff on urban bus lines.
The Senate proposal was dubbed “PEC kamikaze” by the economic team, due to the potential damage to public accounts. The assessment is that the deterioration would lead to an increase in the dollar and interest rates, nullifying any possible benefit from the initiative.
The Chamber’s PEC, although leaner, would also have a considerable impact: R$ 54 billion, which could reach R$ 75 billion if the electricity tax exemption is included.
Since the release of the numbers, the author of the PEC of the Chamber has sought to move away from the seal of fiscal irresponsibility.
Áureo has been looking for benches from different parties to collect the 171 signatures needed for the PEC to pass through the House. In these conversations, he points out that, although the authorization to cut taxes is broad, the government will be able to choose which buttons to activate, according to the space in the accounts.
In practice, the Executive could restrict the exemption to diesel, for example — as was Guedes’ wish.
In the Chamber, one wing defends that the tax cuts measures be restricted to diesel and cooking gas, to prevent the dramatic worsening of public accounts from turning against the consumers themselves.
This Tuesday (8), the Central Bank gave a tough message in that direction. Without directly mentioning the fuel PEC, the monetary authority warned of the risk that policies designed to lower prices in the short term could end up generating more inflation.
“Even fiscal policies that have a downward effect on inflation in the short term can cause a deterioration in risk premiums, an increase in inflation expectations and, consequently, an upward effect on inflation”, said the BC in the minutes of the Copom meeting (Committee on Monetary Policy) which raised the basic interest rate to 10.75% per year.
Among parliamentarians, there is still no consensus on which PEC — from the Chamber or the Senate — should advance first, and there is a perception that the texts may undergo changes.
Although the senators’ proposal has already reached the necessary signatures to be processed, allies of the President of the House, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), assess that he will not rush the discussion, under penalty of putting his fingerprint on something that can receive the stamp. of tax bomb.
The leader of the MDB in the Senate, Eduardo Braga (AM), says that the PEC presented by Fávaro is still recent and is being analyzed by the senators.
“The information is that the government is betting on the PEC of the Chamber”, he says, defending the adoption of some measure. “It is not possible for states, municipalities and the federal government to continue to have record collections while the price of fuels explodes”, he says.
In the Chamber, the leader of DEM, Efraim Filho (PB), says that parliamentarians want to approve a measure that means a reduction in the cost of living for the population, but the challenge is to arrive at the “appropriate text”.
The deputy points out that the parliamentarians returned to their bases at the end of the year and “listened to the reality” of their voters. “It’s the price of meat, of cylinders, of energy. This reality has weighed and sensitized”, he says.
According to Efraim Filho, there is still uncertainty about which PEC will gain strength. “There may even be a third, more consensual text”, he says.
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