In a scenario of persistent inflation and high interest rates, the resumption of the labor market should lose steam in 2022, say analysts.
The expectation is that the unemployment rate will remain close to 11% throughout this year due to the projection of low performance of the Brazilian economy.
Inflationary pressure and high interest rates make it difficult to resume GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and, consequently, create jobs. Electoral race uncertainties are also considered threats to the job market in 2022.
“With persistent inflation and high interest rates, GDP tends to be close to 0% this year. The job market should behave similarly, it should go sideways”, evaluates researcher Bruno Ottoni, from the consultancy IDados.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the unemployment rate was estimated at 11.1%, according to data released this Thursday (24) by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
The result means a decrease in relation to the third quarter of last year (12.6%) and the same interval of 2020 (14.2%). The number of unemployed fell to 12 million between October and December.
For now, IDados projects an unemployment rate of 11.1% in the quarter to December 2022, but that number should be revised down slightly, according to Ottoni. LCA Consultores, in turn, estimates 11%.
“In 2022, the evolution of the job market will depend much more on the economic scenario than on the health scenario. The point is that the domestic economic scenario is deteriorated”, analyzes economist Bruno Imaizumi, from LCA Consultores.
“We see risks from all sides. We still have high inflation and high interest rates. This will make the job market grow more slowly”, he adds.
Economics professor Sergio Firpo, from Insper, follows the same line. According to him, the persistence of inflation, higher interest rates and electoral uncertainties challenge the generation of jobs and the improvement of labor income in Brazil this year.
“The horizon is troubled. Higher interest rates make it difficult to expand employment. There are a number of factors that should inhibit the productive sector”, he comments.
Looking at the long term, Firpo underlines that the country needs to seek advances in training young people for the job market, as this area has been hit hard by the pandemic.
“It is necessary to reduce this gap [atraso]”, it says.
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