Cairo and Tehran are opening communication channels. Yesterday evening’s sudden replacement of the head of Egypt’s secret services, Abbas Kamal, a man who for decades has occupied a critical position in the relations between the two countries, was commented in Israel with concern, but also with wonder. It is possible, of course, that President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi decided to upgrade him hierarchically, appointing him a personal adviser, responsible for the high supervision of the state security services.

However, the first reactions in Israel do not rule out that this “upgrade” actually means a “polite pause” in the duties of Abbas Kamal, as the most important Egyptian interlocutor with the Israeli decision-making centers. The concerns of the Israelis are further strengthened by the fact that the new commander of the Egyptian secret services, Lt. Gen. Hassan Mahmoud Rashad, is a complete stranger to them on an official and personal level.

Replacing Abbas Kamal: Promotion or Demotion?

Until last night, Abbas Kamal was considered the most trusted official in the presidential environment. It was telling that he was the only one unaffected by the sweeping government reshuffle and sudden replacement of all the country’s governors in early July – a reshuffle that abruptly ended the career of iconic Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry.

Israeli political observers attributed the “stressed” – in their view – sudden replacement of the Egyptian political establishment to the revelation of dozens of underground passages along the “Philadelphia Axis” through which the Hamas organization was supplied with weapons-laden vehicles starting from Egyptian territory and ended up in Gaza, both before and after the events of October 7, with the Israeli side leaking that Egypt was either aware of or deliberately indifferent to effectively dealing with this reality. Since then there has been coldness in Israel-Egypt relations, as a result of which Abbas Kamal’s contacts with the Israeli secret services froze from the end of July until last Monday (14/10).

It was the day of the meeting between Abbas Kamal and the head of the Israeli Internal Security Agency, Ronen Barr, in Cairo, which gave the impression that the ice had somewhat begun to be “broken” in Egyptian-Israeli contacts. As, in fact, it was transmitted in the state Israeli media, the two sides were realizing that until the American presidential elections on November 5, nothing new is expected in the negotiations to reach a truce in Gaza and the release of the hostages. The impression was given that, barring the unexpected, the two officials will meet again early next month, normally continuing a partnership that has been maintained for years. However, the unexpected happened.

Israel-Egypt relations are in trouble

The 1978 Israel-Egypt peace treaty established over the decades a stable pro-Western axis of cooperation in the region, with the two countries working closely together in the areas of security and intelligence sharing. This axis has proven its usefulness countless times, most notably from 2007 to the present, whenever tensions rose in Gaza after Hamas took control of the enclave. The Egyptian mediation, spearheaded by Abbas Kamal, acted immediately and effectively. However, with the outbreak of the October 7 war and Israel regaining military control of all of Gaza, the Sisi administration quickly realized that the “Gaza problem” should not be transferred to the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula, even as a place of ‘temporary accommodation’ of refugees. After all, it was only in the last five years that the Egyptian army managed to bring under control jihadist cells operating in the region.

At the same time, the unusually long duration of the war that broke out last October tested the endurance of Egyptian mediation efforts, with the result that, for some time now, their effectiveness has been questioned. With the assumption of the leadership of Hamas by the – more intransigent – Yahya Sinwar, the Israelis are putting open on the table the possibility of establishing a permanent military administration in Gaza, something that finds both the Biden administration and President Sisi opposed.

The latter, in fact, openly expresses the opinion that the Palestinian Authority should regain control of the Gaza-Egypt border, while not even ruling out a possible presence of Hamas – just as the representatives of the two Palestinian organizations agreed during their two-day contacts in Cairo last week. The fact that the Egyptian media did not comment on this development does not mean that this possibility does not echo the views of the presidential environment. On the other hand, the more Israel observes Cairo’s refusal to accept a permanent Israeli reoccupation of the post-war Gaza, the more it “freezes” its contacts with Egypt’s deep state.

New Cairo-Tehran communication channel

Making full use of its mediation capabilities for a number of years, President Sisi’s Egypt managed to push the unresolved “Gaza problem” out of its own territory. Today, however, it is called upon to readjust its role in view of possible unpleasant post-war realities for it, always trying to ensure stability within itself.

In this effort, the Sisi administration seems to be making jerky moves, even opening contacts with Tehran. The replacement of Abbas Kamal perhaps did not coincide with yesterday’s, equally unexpected, visit to Cairo by the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, creating many questions for enemies and friends.