On three major fronts concerning the battle against it tax evasionthe absorption of its funds Recovery Fund and the new evaluations of the country’s creditworthiness by foreign banks, the bet of the Greek economy for 2025 will be decided. On all three fronts, the first half of the year will be decisive, as appears from the Ministry of Finance. During this period, a series of important new arrangements for the expansion of electronic transactions and further digitization of the Tax Office’s controls will “run”, the 6th request for funds amounting to 5 billion euros will be submitted from the Recovery Fund, which requires the implementation of important reforms, while from the In March, the evaluations of the Greek economy by foreign houses will begin, from which the financial staff expects new upgrades of its credit rating country.

Tax evasion

On the tax evasion front, 2024 gives the “baton” with good news to 2025. According to the data so far, the revenue from the fight against tax evasion will exceed 2 billion euros this year. Thus, the target of reaching €2.5 billion in annual tax evasion revenue is seen as achievable by 2025, thus widening the fiscal scope for new middle-class-focused tax cuts and socially-minded policies, as it has announced by the government. At the end of April, it is expected to announce the final figures for the course of revenues and expenses in 2024, based on which the primary surplus of this year’s budget will be formed. Today’s estimates raise its height above the initial forecast of 2.5% of GDP to near 3% levels.

Evaluations

At the beginning of March, the first evaluations of the Greek economy by foreign houses will begin, while 2024 closes with the upgrading of the country’s credit rating to a higher position within the investment grade by the house SCOPE. The “dance” of evaluations will open on March 7, the Canadian house DBRS, which had upgraded the outlook of the economy from “stable” to “positive”, in September. It will be followed, one week later, on March 14 by Moody’s, which upgraded the outlook of the Greek economy from “stable” to “positive” in September. On April 18 it will be the turn of Standard & Poor’s to announce its own assessment. The Ministry of Finance estimates that 2025 will be a year of new upgrades, due to the continuation of the strong growth performance of the economy, the seamless absorption of the Recovery Fund resources and the reforms that this implies, as well as the high primary surpluses recorded in the budget.

Recovery Fund

By the beginning of next summer, Greece is expected to submit the new request for the 6th tranche of the Recovery Fund. This concerns an amount of 5 billion euros, while in total together with the 7th installment planned for the Autumn, Greece is expected to collect the amount of 9.8 billion euros. Each tranche is accompanied by specific milestones that the country must meet, including important reforms. That is why their implementation is a key priority for the financial staff for 2025.