Opinion – Eduardo Sodré: IPI discount is still not reflected in car sales, which continues to fall

The automakers are passing on the discounts of the IPI (Imposto sobre Produtos Industrializados) and the shopkeepers have managed to have cars in stock re-invoiced – which makes it possible to sell them at a lower price. The results, however, still do not appear in sales.

According to data from Renavam (National Registry of Motor Vehicles), 71,900 light and heavy vehicles were licensed between March 1st and 16th. The number represents a drop of 28.9% compared to the same period in 2021.

The effects of the tax reduction should appear in this second fortnight and in April. That’s enough time for those interested to go to the stores. However, if there is no improvement in the average number of licenses in this period, the automotive sector is heading for another frustrating year.

From January to March 16, sales fell 25.5% over the same period in 2021. The first quarter will register an unexpected negative result, which turns forecasts for the year into a distant dream.

Anfavea (association of automakers) projected that the sale of vehicles would increase by 8.5% in 2022 compared to 2021. Fenabrave, which represents dealers, predicted a growth of 4.6% this year.

If the scenario does not change already in the second quarter, both entities will have their expectations frustrated and will need to revise their calculations.

The scenario in Brazil does not give reasons for a race to the concessionaires. Higher basic interest rates, fuels impacted by the war in Ukraine and more expensive cars due to the rise in the dollar and in inputs seem to dampen the spirits of consumers.

On the other hand, there is still a waiting list for several models, especially the recently launched ones. Some versions of the new Jeep Renegade, for example, are scheduled for delivery in August.

The problem is complex. Apparently, the approximately 80 thousand cars in stock do not interest potential customers, who prefer to wait to receive models and versions more suited to their tastes and pockets.

It is natural for this to occur: in a scenario of high prices and expensive credit, car buyers prefer to wait to acquire exactly what they want.

And that wait can take even longer. After the earthquake that hit Japan’s northeast coast on Wednesday, a semiconductor maker halted production at three factories. In other words, the supply crisis of these components will worsen again.

The recovery, therefore, depends on the ability of brands to deliver what consumers want, reviving the desire to buy despite the discouraging scenario.

A good thermometer will be the launch of the new Citroën C3, with the potential to move the compact car segment – ​​which gathers the rare new models currently sold for less than R$80,000. Production began this week at the Stellantis group factory in Porto Real (RJ), and the car hits stores in the second quarter.