The German Parliament approved the revision of the Constitution for the “debt brake”. But now the hardships are starting, commented Yiannis Papadimitriou. “Germany is back,” says Christian Democrat Friedrich Mertz. The “historical moment” speaks by the SPD co -chair of Lars Clningbale. Seasons change, the clouds on the geopolitical horizon are thickened.

Germany abandons the logic of the “Swamous housewife”, who is capable of making masterpieces from the remains of the past week and planning her shopping in time to reduce costs, while usually spending less than she is collecting.

It was the logic that inspired the constitutionally guaranteed “debt brake” and the “balanced budget” at the time of Wolfgang Schoible’s omnipotence. The markets, of course, rewarded the commitment to strict fiscal discipline, and Berlin even borrowed at a negative interest rate on the height of Euro-crisis, in other words investors paid Germany to trust their economies.

The irony of the story

But what the lot of in Wolfgang Schoeble’s “political child” happens to the future Chancellor Friedris Mertz, turning 180 degrees to this “historic moment”. Historical dimensions will be, if anything, the volume of debt. In the 80th anniversary of the founding of Federal Germany, the country’s debt did not exceed 2.4 trillion euros. Now, within a few weeks, an additional debt of a trillion is launched by parliamentary procedures-and with the financial inspection Handelsblatt even uploading the future account to 1.7 trillion).

Of course, not only how much one owes, but also who owes. US debt reaches $ 36 trillion and each second seconds are added another $ 60,000. In Japan, debt exceeds 215% of GDP. Both countries, however, have no problem refinancing their debts.

Moreover, most economists make the distinction between “good debt” for productive purposes, such as funding strategic investment, and the “bad debt” that serves merely consumer purposes. Greece in 2015 was certainly the second case. Germany in 2025 is supposed to be the first case. But will it be, really?

In the “bazaar” between Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Greens necessary to ensure a 2/3 majority for the revision of the German Constitution, many wishes were expressed and many billions changed hands. The concern is that the “billion rain” can also be used for customer benefits. But even if this is not done, the future Chancellor Friedrich Mertz is necessarily moving into uncharted waters with a wind.

Political minefield for Mertz

The first reactions are the political reactions. With the “air” of the opposition, the “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) will promote obstacles where it can. (Already in her first statement after Tuesday’s vote, AfD co -chairman Alice Videl has accused Mertz of “greater cheating voters in the country’s history”).

The same will, for their own reasons, do the Left Party (Die Linke) and the Liberals (FDP), who are no longer represented in the federal parliament, but give the present to local parliaments as well as to the Eurovision. The fact that former Christian Democrats (CDU) and former Merz associate, Mario Tsaya, voted against the revision of the Constitution shows that there are serious objections within the future government camp.

Following is the Skopelos of the Constitutional Court, in which AfD has already appealed. But the verdict of the markets is also of interest. Germany does not in any way want to lose the excellent evaluation of “triple A”, as has happened in neighboring France, resulting in French bond yields climbing today to the highest levels of the last 10 years. Fitch is already referring to “budget consolidation measures” that the future Mertz government is called upon to receive.