In cloudy waters now the international market for smartphones – and obviously not just smartphones – as uncertainty and trade duties are affecting forecasts for 2025. According to the latest analyst of International Data Corporation (IDC), global smartphones are expected to increase by just 0.6% in an annual basis. billion pieces in 2025.

This is a sales provision, which is far short of the previous estimate by the Analysis Company to increase sales of 2.3% on the smartphones market, published in February. IDC attributes this revision to the volatile conditions of the market, the duties fluctuations, as well as the general macroeconomic pressures, such as inflation and unemployment, which directly affect consumer expenditure.

IDC revisits its predicts for Smartphones sales on the world market in 2025

Although the market continues to grow, growth is expected to remain at low single -digit rates, with an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.4% in the period 2024–2029. The two main growth levers are China and the US, but the picture is mixed.

The China smartphones market is projected to increase by 3%, mainly due to state subsidies, which boost demand and support Android. However, Apple’s sales in the region are expected to fall by 1.9%, due to increasing pressure from Huawei, the general slowdown in the economy, and the fact that most iPhones do not meet the criteria for state subsidies.

The US market

In the US, the forecast for growth of 1.9% was also limited due to the ongoing trade dispute with China and raising prices due to duties. However, the particular structure of the US market, where the majority of smartphones is sold through providers with favorable exchange and funding packages, limits the negative effects on consumers.

As IDC points out, “The threat of enforcement of additional duties 20% -30% on imports smartphones In the US it may have serious consequences, especially for manufacturers dependent on US market ”. Although India and Vietnam emerge as alternative production centers, geopolitical uncertainty continues to compose a difficult landscape for businesses.

The message is clear, as analysts explain, in a world where technological developments are running, trade barriers threaten to slow down the rate of innovation and consumption. Instead of protecting domestic production, duties may become the main reason for slowing a whole world market with the technology market clearly under the shadow of the “duties crisis”.