75% of Brazilians blame Bolsonaro government for high inflation

Although the government has reinforced the discourse that inflation is a consequence of global crises and actions by third parties, such as governors who imposed social distancing against Covid-19, a large proportion of Brazilians attribute responsibility for the price hike.

The discontent was identified by Datafolha. Both in a survey carried out in September of last year and in the most recent survey, in March, 75% indicate that the Bolsonaro government is responsible for inflation.

The Datafolha poll was conducted on Tuesday (22) and Wednesday (23) with 2,556 voters in 181 cities across the country. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus.

Comparing the two surveys shows that the number of Brazilians who attribute too much responsibility to the government has dropped. This share went from 41% to 36%. On the other hand, the share that attributes some responsibility has increased from 34% to 39%. There was a slight drop, from 23% to 21%, in the contingent that did not see any responsibility.

Among voters who say they evaluate voting for so-called third way candidates are the most critical of the Bolsonaro government. According to the survey, 87% of those who declare their intention to vote for Ciro Gomes (PDT) consider that the government is responsible for the rise in inflation, with 50% saying that the Bolsonarista administration has a lot of responsibility.

Among those who declared their intention to vote for Sergio Moro (Podemos), 82% felt that the government had a responsibility, and 42% considered it to have a lot of responsibility. In the case of voters of André Janones (Avante), 80% say that the government has responsibility, and half consider it to be a little.

Even those who are in Bolsonaro’s support base believe that the government is responsible for inflation, even a little. This perception is shared even by declared voters. The survey shows that 75% of them believe that the government is responsible for the lack of control over prices.

This assessment is also made by 72% of evangelicals, 75% of residents of the Midwest, a region that concentrates agribusiness, and 79% of residents of the South region, who voted heavily to elect Bolsonaro.

Inflation started to rise during the pandemic, but it skyrocketed even last year. In 2019, for example, the IPCA, which measures official inflation, closed the year up 4.31%. In 2020, it rose to 4.52%. But it closed 2021 accumulating a high of 10.06%.

A confluence of critical factors drives up prices. Droughts in the South, torrential rains in the Southeast, disruption of the global supply chain for industrial parts, increase in sea freight and dispute over containers. Recently, the scenario has worsened with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and an escalation of sanctions from Western countries against the government of Vladimir Putin.

Two essentials are among those most affected by this multiple breakdown and face month after month. On the one hand, foods, such as wheat from the bread, vegetables, fruits. On the other, energy, including gasoline, diesel and cooking gas. As both are basic to the economy, they not only drive up the cost of living but also help spread inflation to other sectors.

The Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, does not miss the opportunity to speak in public that the rise in prices is a global phenomenon and that Brazil is a victim of circumstances that are beyond the power of intervention of the State. However, other segments of the government, including Bolsonaro himself, are trying to show diligence to alleviate inflationary blows.

According to economists, hasty interventions can have the opposite effect, make markets dysfunctional and raise prices, but the government has persisted, corroborating the popular view that it has a responsibility to calibrate inflation.

In 2020, with the spike in rice prices, he even said that the Ministries of Economy and Agriculture would take steps to lower the price and even asked supermarkets to reduce profit margins with grain.

At the beginning of the year, the upward pressure remains firm. On Friday (25), the IPCA-15 for March was released, a preview of monthly inflation. The indicator rose 0.95%, the highest rate for the period since 2015 (1.24%) and above projections.

With this data, the IPCA-15 accumulated inflation of 10.79% in the 12 months through March. 12-month cumulative inflation is above 10% since September 2021.

Since March 2021, the Central Bank has been raising the Selic, the basic interest rate, to try to cool the rise in prices. At the most recent meeting, in February, it went from 9.25% to 10.75%, returning to double-digit territory, which had not occurred for five years.