EUR/USD: New in the soap opera of customs duties

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The dollar found a little time after the Camouflet suffered by Donald Trump by an American commercial court seized by a set of small businesses. According to this court, the application of customs duties by the White House is unconstitutional, these measures under the congress. The national emergency character argued by Donald Trump to justify this prerogative was therefore not retained. This decision, certainly awaited, will not discourage the American president in his trade war, but it is clear that this camouflet rained in the Asian markets, closing sharply on Thursday. The Dax and the CAC, for their part, sees at midday their opening gain stirring.

A White House spokesman denounced a decision taken by “non-elected judges” who “did not” manage a national emergency properly “. So far, the American president was based on the 1977 economic emergency law to proceed by decree on the issue of the increase in reciprocal customs duties.

It is a group of five small American businesses that is behind these proceedings. First of all, a New York import society of wines, spirits and other sake called your selections. Donald Trump’s threats to the alcohols (and innovatively French) have caused the officials of this small company founded in 1987.

The other complainants are quasi-anonymous companies who say they represent “the American worker”. We find in particular Fishusa, a company from Pennsylvania which sells fishing equipment, Genova Pipe which manufactures in the UTAH pipes and plastic fittings for plumbing or microkits, a manufacturer of music instruments from Virginie and finally Terry Cycling which markets cycling clothes from the vermont.

In the statistical chapter, no surprise yesterday on the manufacturing index of the Richmond Fed, which came out perfectly in line with expectations, at -9. The day before, operators appreciated an increase greater than the expectations of the consumer confidence index (Conference Board).

“Consumer confidence has improved in May after five consecutive months of decrease,” said Stéphanie Guichard, the world’s leading economist, in the Conference Board.

“The rebound was already visible before the Sino-American trade agreement of May 12, but has accelerated later. The monthly improvement is largely due to the expectations of consumers, the three components of the expectations of expectations-economic conditions, employment prospects and future income-having progressed compared to their lower April. Consumers were less pessimistic about Next six months and have found their optimism about future income prospects.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow in priority the preliminary data of quarterly GDP and weekly registrations for unemployment benefits across the Atlantic at 2:30 p.m.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1280 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The pair of currencies currently succeeds in the highly important graphic test of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange). A breath of breath is necessary before the conquest of new highests. That is to say the formation of several support on this trend curve.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1202 USD and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics