Suspension of 90 days to restore the very high duties to Chinese products signed by Donald Trump, the world has taken a deep breath. Many analysts treated it as a good final agreement between the 2 superpowers and was also a component of the improved image of the financial markets.

However, analysts estimates that such a cocktail of conditions has been shaped that favors escalation in the future of commercial tensions between the US and the rest of the world. In short, the worst has not passed. According to Scope there are 5 main reasons….

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The image of the markets is so good that in essence … it takes Donald Trump to cause turmoil. Wall Street indicators – after the inflation data that did not go up and therefore came closer the time to reduce interest rates by the Fed – are or approaching historically high.

Everyone remembers how the markets reacted when the US president with the … price list was announced in early April the duties in each country. The … monthly bond market forced them to announce suspensions and negotiate to end up in the majority of cases in lower “charges”.

Result; The markets are now “relaxed”. It is noteworthy that their volatility index is close to low for many years, suggesting that markets no longer see the 15% -20% duties recently proposed by Trump as a penalty, but as the new regularity.

US ECONOMY

The US economy demonstrates strength. On a quarterly basis, GDP recovered by 0.7% and projections now indicate growth in the third quarter. Overall this year, the US economy, Scope estimates, will grow with 1.8%, which is much more than other developed economies (according to the OECD, the eurozone will be 1.4%, Germany at 0.4%, France at 0.7%. Japan at 0.7% and the UK at 1.2%).

Current duties may be much higher than in recent decades, but they are not high enough to effectively impose an embargo on imports or cause serious financial losses. And the impact on inflation will take more time than expected to be ascertained.

Customs income

Revenue from duties may not be what Donald Trump had promised, but they are real and reduce the budget deficit. In the second quarter they amounted to $ 66, and only $ 28 in July. Last year the monthly receipts did not exceed $ 7.
US average duties have increased sharply to 18.6%, from 2.5% in late 2024 and 1.5% in 2016, before the first Trump government.

Company Reaction

Despite the … big words, the reactions of the US trade partners were limited and bilaterally. Only Canada and China raised their stature in the… new sheriff of the city.

They not only reacted lukewarm but through the agreements they made with the US president – and not to harm their supply chains, their growth prospects and their safety – committed to investments over $ 1cm in the US, additional energy markets and further opened their doors to US products.

Internal political

And the inner setting favors escalation. President Trump’s popularity among the Republican Party voters remains in the 90%region. Which mitigates fears of major losses in the 2026 interim elections if they appear in the ballot box.

It may have been difficult, however, Trump passed his “big beautiful bill”, which he added to his political capital.