Novo Bolsa Família starts to be paid amid uncertainties about PEC and the amount of R$ 400

The Auxílio Brasil social program starts to be paid this Wednesday (17), with an increase of 17.8% in the average value (to R$ 217.18) compared to its predecessor, Bolsa Família.

Now, to reach the announced minimum of R$400, the government intends to concentrate forces to approve the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of the Precatório and says that the extension of emergency aid is not on the radar.

The time to get the approval of the PEC, however, plays against the strategy and keeps the uncertainty about the amounts to be paid.

The leader of the government in the Senate and rapporteur of the text of the precatories, senator Fernando Bezerra (MDB-PE), mentioned the last December 2nd as the deadline for the approval of the text.

The deadline is already more elastic than the one mentioned by the economic team in conversations on the subject. Before, the team signaled that the PEC would have to be approved by mid-November; then until the end of this month.

The changes need to be put into practice this year so as not to disrespect the electoral law — which prevents the benefit from being increased in 2022.

Government and Congress stopped cutting costs and the 2022 Budget proposal is at the limit of the ceiling, which impedes the real growth of federal spending.

The Precatório PEC circumvents the ceiling by postponing the payment of court judgments scheduled for the year and even changes the rule for the annual correction of the spending limit, freeing the government with a further R$ 91.6 billion in 2022 without the need to review other expenses — which increases the deficit in public accounts and the country’s indebtedness.

Brazil has been in the red since 2014, its debt exceeds R$5.4 trillion and interest costs are paid by society as a whole.

Given the uncertainties about the approval of the PEC, the extension of emergency aid began to be considered by the government and allies as a way to expand payments to the most vulnerable.

But the measure is not a consensus among the members of the Executive, even after the favorable signal from the TCU (Tribunal de Contas da União).

Among members of the economic team, an eventual extension of emergency aid has been seen as incompatible with the requirements of unpredictability and urgency established by the Constitution for extraordinary credits (outside the spending ceiling), as the pandemic is cooling down.

In addition, the 2022 Budget is still open — which, in theory, provides conditions for forecast payments to be made following traditional rules (with spending cuts in other areas).

The PEC that postpones payments of precatório by the Union (amounts owed by the State and charged by the Justice) was approved in the Chamber of Deputies last week and will now be analyzed by the Senate.

Despite having passed the Chamber relatively quickly, the proposal is already beginning to face obstacles in the neighboring Legislative House.

Senators are still resisting an accelerated processing of the PEC on Precatório and can put at risk even the most pessimistic forecasts of the government, including promoting changes in the text.

The government’s leadership says it believes the PEC can pass the Senate during the concentrated effort initially destined for the hearing and voting of nominations for positions. The works are scheduled for November 30th and December 1st and 2nd.

This period would offer a window with a high quorum, since the concentrated effort brings congressmen to Brasília — since the voting of nominations by authorities must be in person.

Proposals to amend the Constitution must be approved in two rounds with 49 votes of the senators.

The schedule already represents a defeat for the Ministry of Citizenship, which calculated that the proposal should be completed by November 20, so that the benefit could be paid in December.

However, the senators demanded from the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), that the proposal was initially passed by the CCJ (Committee on Constitution and Justice).

The president of the CCJ, senator Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP), announced last week that the PEC should be included in the agenda of the session on the 24th.

Even so, there are still congressmen and leaders who defend the movement of the PEC from Precatório to other commissions.

TO sheet the leader of the PSDB, Izalci Lucas (DF), defended that the proposal be analyzed by the CAE (Commission for Economic Affairs).

Some senators still want changes in the text approved by the Chamber, which would imply the return of the PEC to that Legislative House. The main point of divergence is the size of the space in the Budget created by the approval of the proposal.

Three senators —Alessandro Vieira (Citizenship-SE), Oriovisto Guimarães (Podemos-PR) and José Aníbal (PSDB-SP)— even proposed their own PEC proposals to make a new social program viable.

They say they believe it is possible to pay Brazil Aid and debts with court orders without breaking the spending ceiling and consider the open space in the Budget to be excessive.

Bezerra has said that he will use this week to dialogue with the senators and try to convince them that the space that will be opened in the Budget is “fair, adequate and necessary”.

Like sheet showed, the government continues to work with other plans in case the PEC gets stuck in the Senate.

These cards in the sleeve, even, will be used in negotiations with the senators. The argument is that issuing an MP (provisional measure) would be even more harmful for Brazil, considering that there would be a strong reaction from the market.