Basic food basket inflation jumps from 13% to 21% in March; see ranking

Inflation of foods that make up the basic food basket soared in March in Brazil. With that, it surpassed the mark of 20% in the accumulated of 12 months, indicates a study of professors of the economics course of PUCPR (Pontifical Catholic University of Paraná).

The rise in prices came in a context of adverse weather pressures, rising freight costs and the war between Russia and Ukraine.

From February to March, basic food basket inflation accelerated from 2.02% to 5.27% in Brazil. Thus, the high accumulated in 12 months also had a jump: from 12.67% to 21.46%.

The most recent variation corresponds to almost double the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index). In the 12 months through March, the general index accumulated inflation of 11.30%, the most intense since October 2003 (13.98%).

According to economist Jackson Bittencourt, coordinator of the economics course at PUCPR, the rise in the basic food basket reflects a combination of factors.

The first is the adverse weather experienced in part of Brazil in recent months. Heavy rains in the Southeast and drought in the South damaged crops.

Thus, extreme phenomena restricted supply and impacted the prices of part of the 13 products that make up the basket.

Furthermore, March marked the initial phase of the economic repercussions of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

The conflict increased the prices of wheat, putting pressure in Brazil on the prices of foods such as French bread, one of the components of the basket, says Bittencourt.

Finally, the The rise in fuel prices in March also had indirect effects on food, according to the professor. It’s just that the inflation of diesel fuel raises the cost of transporting goods, including food.

“Inflation above 20%, like that of the basic food basket, is impressive. It affects all Brazilians. But it is the lower income classes that feel the most. They are impoverishing”, says the economist.

Tomatoes rise more than 90% in a year

The PUCPR study is based on food data within the IPCA, calculated by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).

In March, the biggest increases among the products of the basic basket were registered by tomatoes (27.22%), long-life milk (9.34%), soy oil (8.99%), beans (6.43%) and potato (4.89%). Silver banana (-4.78%) and beef sirloin (-0.07%), on the other hand, dropped.

In the 12-month period up to March, the highest increases came from tomatoes (94.55%), coffee (64.66%), crystal sugar (35.68%), potatoes (27.15%), of soy (23.75%) and margarine (20.09%). The only fall in the period was that of rice (-13.88%).

The basic food basket indicator began to be released by PUCPR during the second half of last year.

Series registrations began in September. At the time, basket inflation was 15.96% in the 12-month period. The IPCA was at 10.25% at the time.

In addition to the national scope, the university’s research also shows basket inflation in the metropolitan region of Curitiba.

In the capital of Paraná, the indicator increased by 20.48% in the 12-month period up to March. Curitiba’s IPCA, in the same period, was 14.37%. This is the highest inflation among the 16 capitals and metropolitan regions surveyed by the IBGE.

Trend is for prices still high

According to Bittencourt, it is possible that food will put less pressure on Brazilians’ pockets in the coming months, in a scenario of better weather conditions.

However, the trend points to prices still at a high level, ponders the professor. Risks such as fertilizer shortages due to the war in Ukraine remain on the radar, according to the economist.

With persistent inflation and difficulties in the job market, Brazil began to record more scenes of people looking for food donations and even food leftovers during the pandemic.

In March, the values ​​of the basic food basket increased in the 17 capitals surveyed by Dieese (Inter-union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies).

The worker who received a net minimum wage, that is, after deducting 7.5% from Social Security, committed 58.57% of his income, on average, to purchase the products in the basket. In February, the percentage had been lower, 56.11%, indicates Dieese.