THE Russia is the largest exporter natural gas and oil in the world. According to International Energy Agency45% of Russia’s budget in 2021 came from oil and gas revenues.
The EU has been around for a long time the best customer for both oil and gas. In 2021, the US Intelligence Agency in matters of Energy claims that the 49% of Russia’s crude oil exports directed to OECD European countries. However, the war pushed the EU to wants to get away from Russian fossil fuels and Russia will need new customers.
Who will they be? Russia is likely to focus to existing customers where have not imposed sanctionssuch as China. In terms of oil, China is Russia’s largest non-European customer, accounting for 38% of Russia’s oil exports to Asia and Oceania in 2021.
China and India the main target of Russia
Russia is China’s second largest oil supplier after Saudi Arabiabut experts believe that the Kremlin’s main goal in the coming years will be to overtake its rivals in the Middle East to become China’s main oil supplier.
Another big goal for Moscow will be to significantly increase sales in India. The country of 1.38 billion people is the third largest consumer of oil in the world, the vast amount of which it must import.
The IraqSaudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates are India’s largest suppliers and in 2021, Russia accounted for only 2% of India’s oil imports. However, there are signs of change. India has not condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine and in March and April, Russian oil purchases from the country increased significantly.
However, there are doubts about the extent to which countries such as China and India can eventually replace European demand.
Cooperation with Moscow
THE Fernando Ferreira, geopolitical analyst, says trade relations between the Middle East and countries like China and India took decades to cultivate. “I think both of them will be reluctant to completely close the door to Middle Eastern countries in favor of Russian oil,” he said.
In February, however, Beijing and Moscow announced a 30-year agreement to supply gas to China through a new pipeline. Payments will be made in euros.
Russia has also established close gas ties with Pakistan. Russia agrees to build Pakistan Stream, a $ 2 billion pipeline will carry LNG from Karachi in the north of the country. Like neighboring India, Pakistan has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Even some European leaders, such as Hungarian Victor Orbanremain focused on the Russian gas market, but also the Serbia seems willing to buy Russian gas in the future.
DW / Arthur Sullivan / Editor: Maria Rigoutsou
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