Panel SA: Institutional fragility generated by Bolsonaro’s pardon is a death wound, says businessman

The pardon of the sentence granted by Bolsonaro to federal deputy Daniel Silveira (PTB-RJ) should be a concern for society in general and also for the business community, in the opinion of businessman Horacio Lafer Piva.

He says news of the pardon spread quickly among investors, but institutional fragility is a concern that trumps economic factors.

“The institutional issue is a death wound. It affects business, affects people’s lives, the image of Brazil abroad”, he says.

The businessman, who in 2021 was one of the signatories of the great manifesto in defense of the elections and participated in a street protest against Bolsonaro, says that there are several groups in society, including businessmen, in debates on the electoral scenario with the intention of returning to manifest themselves. .

For now, the idea is to wait for May 18, when the announcement of the third way candidacy is promised.

Everyone is containing their anxiety a little, but with difficulty, because there is an exasperation, a very clear intention of some manifestation”, he says.

Should the news of Daniel Silveira’s pardon worry the business community?This is news that should concern the business community and society as a whole. The pardon is not unconstitutional, but Daniel Silveira’s crime, and the jurists can confirm, did not seem to us in society to be subject to this measure.

The Federal Supreme Court is taking a stand, and I think it has to be quick, because what happened is an insult, it’s a scandal. Anyone who cares about the country is very impacted and is even scared.

All of this creates an institutional fragility for the country that takes on an even greater dimension than the mere economic issue. The economic issue is a problem, but at some point you manage to get it back on track.

The institutional issue is a death wound. This affects business, affects people’s lives, the image of Brazil abroad. And obviously, thinking like an entrepreneur, affects investment decision. You are always very fearful.

Is the investor keeping an eye on these movements that have taken place in Brazil, especially when the rope stretches in the attack on institutions?I was very impressed with the speed at which this circulated. Of course, every time a disastrous measure comes along, which is an almost daily feature of this government, things go awry. But this time, people were clearly scared.

And that news spread both here and abroad. A very high degree of astonishment. They were all amazed at the courage of a STF to be faced. And, obviously, this is generating a very large assessment of what it actually means. And not only in the legal aspects, but, mainly, in the question of the institutional balance of the country.

His name has already participated in manifestos, including in defense of the elections last year. Is there any other movement being organized in this direction this year?I think there are several groups of entrepreneurs, people from the most varied levels of society, getting ready to do something, discussing in almost weekly groups about everything that is happening. Extraordinarily worried about what might happen in these elections.

Everyone is holding back their anxiety a little, but with difficulty, because there is an exasperation, a very clear intention of some manifestation. As it was said that May 18 would be a date when something would come, the groups are trying to understand what is the conversation that is happening in the parties and trying to influence them so that they decide on a name as quickly as possible, whatever for.

I see a more discreet movement, however, heated at this moment, but I see much louder manifestations from the 18th.

A group of businessmen, including his presence, participated in a demonstration against Bolsonaro last year. Would it be this?I don’t know if there is a climate for street protest, because there is a polarization that is dangerous. There has been an attempt to avoid this meeting because it ends up helping little in a democratic center discussion and more leading to gratuitous, emotional aggressions.

I don’t know if there will be street movements, but there will certainly be a lot of demonstrations, manifestos, conversations. I have the impression that a lot has to happen. I think there will be a mobilization of society, which, in my opinion, is the essence of the response for this country.

And the third way? Does part of the business community, which includes you, still believe in it?I’m still one of those who believe that politics change very quickly, which is why we shouldn’t give up. Of course, you can’t take that until the day before the election. There has to be some positioning, and certainly pro-democracy, which is the most important thing we have, which is anchored by freedom.

I think what is being tried at this point is to still believe that there can be movements. And that, who knows, would bring a candidate who would have many people who are undefined, but also many who have expressed themselves for one or another candidate from the poles, but much more as a matter of accommodation than conviction. I think there is no conviction yet, with the exception of those 20% who have Bolsonaro and the twenty-something to 30% who have Lula. The rest don’t. And these people are what can move.

So, until this announcement on the 18th and a week to 10 days later, to feel how the tectonic forces work, we will continue to believe that there is a possibility of a democratic center that can make a great deal and move forward.

Is a big turnaround at the end of the race expected?Not. I think that, today, people are much more concerned with their accounts than with paying attention to elections. We treat this with great importance, but we actually mean very little in terms of votes. And a good part of the decisions will happen in the parties and not necessarily in our discussion.

We cannot pretend to think we have more power than we actually do. A good part of the electorate is worried about what, in my opinion, is the most serious thing at the moment, which is inflation. We are in the habit of discussing the tax issue. And I think we are going to leave a tax liability that will be difficult to fix, I think we have complicated problems from the point of view of lost opportunities in the world, largely because of the bad management of the environment, but I think people will be concerned just very shortly before the elections.

I also don’t think it’s possible to make a big comeback at that moment. Certainly, when July, August arrives, things will already be more or less clear. At this moment, the surveys are repeated a little, because there are many people who are not worried.

But I think this is going to be a bloody, aggressive, low-level campaign. Precisely because she is noisy, she will end up attracting the attention of many people, therefore, not convictions, but positioning, will begin to emerge earlier.

X-ray

Member of the board of directors of Klabin, he is a shareholder of Presh, which is a shareholder of Klabin Irmãos. Economist and postgraduate in business administration from FGV, he was president of Fiesp/Ciesp, Sesi/Senai, Sebrae-SP and the thematic economic council of CNI, Bracelpa, the council of AACD and others.