The dollar hitched a new high against the real this Friday (6), although it rose at a much more restrained pace than that recorded the day before. The increase comes amid still-fragile sentiment abroad over fears that the US central bank will be forced to raise interest rates more quickly, despite the various risks facing the global economy.
At 9:05 am (GMT), the spot dollar advanced 0.30%, at R$ 5.0319 on sale.
On B3, at 9:05 am (BrasÃlia time), the dollar futures contract with the first maturity was stable at R$ 5.0675.
The day before, the US currency traded on the interbank market closed up 2.34%, at R$ 5.0166 on sale.
After the good mood took over the markets on Wednesday (4) with the prospect that the monetary tightening in the United States would not be as aggressive as some were expecting, risk aversion returned to play the cards on Thursday (5).
The last session was marked by significant falls in shares on the US and Brazilian stock exchanges, with the dollar once again strengthening against the real.
With a rise above 2% since the morning, the appreciation of the US currency intensified in the early afternoon and came close to 3%. At the close of the previous trading session, the commercial dollar appreciated by 2.28%, quoted at R$ 5.015 for sale.
In the local interest futures market, contract rates advanced strongly, after the BC (Central Bank) raised the Selic rate by 1 percentage point, to 12.75% per year.
The interest rate futures contract for January 2023 rose from 13.04% to 13.23%, while the bond for 2027 rose from 11.90% to 12.16%.
The Brazilian Stock Exchange was also infected by the feeling of less propensity to take risks and resumed its negative trend, after rising 1.7% on Wednesday. The Ibovespa closed on Thursday with a drop of 2.81%, at 105,304 points.
In US stocks, the negative tone also predominated – the S&P had losses of 3.57%, while the Dow Jones ended the trading session down 3.12%, and the Nasdaq lost 4.99%, the biggest drop in the technology exchange. since June 11, 2020, when it dropped 5.27%.
“Even after a less tough-than-expected Fed, the market must remain cautious in the face of the challenging growth environment,” says Victor Beyruti Guglielmi, economist at Guide Investimentos, in a report.
There was a growing perception in the market among agents that the American Central Bank could raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage point, given the persistence of inflationary pressure in the region.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said after Wednesday’s decision that the monetary authority does not consider a stronger US interest rate hike at this time.
The official’s statement, however, does not seem to have been enough to make the markets completely dismiss the need for a more aggressive monetary tightening.
The expectation of a longer longevity of supply constraints, sustained by the war in Eastern Europe and the opening and closing in China, also maintains a dangerous environment for inflation, adds the expert from Guide.
with Reuters
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