It is very possible that a new wave of the pandemic will occur in the autumn-winter period in our country, “but the data available to date do not provide documentation that this will happen with certainty.”
There are no indications that the “centaur” subvariant of the coronavirus can dominate over the variant Omicron 5, says the EODY in his announcement about the possible course of the coronavirus in the fall and the importance of the “centaur” subvariant.
According to EODY, a new wave of pandemic is very likely during the autumn-winter period in our country, “but the data available to date do not provide documentation that this will happen with certainty.
In particular, it is reported that during autumn and winter, the infectivity of the coronavirus increases significantly due to the fact that we spend a longer period of time indoors. Also, among other things, new mutant strains are emerging that may increase infectivity or immune evasion or the ability of the virus to infect immune individuals.
According to EODY, the high rates of hybrid immunity in the population and the high intensity of the recent wave with the BA.5 subvariant “make not entirely predictable the course of the coronavirus in the immediate future”.
“What is almost certain is that the protection provided by the vaccine against serious disease is important and that the coronavirus, although it continues to circulate among us, if something does not change dramatically in terms of the properties of the virus, it causes serious disease in smaller percentages in relation to the past”, states EODY and points out again the importance of observing the protection measures.
“The observance of protective measures, vaccination, early diagnosis and in any case not the cultivation of panic are our weapons to deal with it”is emphasized.
The entire EODY announcement
Regarding the possible course of the pandemic during the coming autumn period and the contribution of the Omicron variant, it is worth noting the following:
First, the evolution of the course of the coronavirus depends on the balance between the infectivity of the virus and immunity in the community. The parameters that increase the infectivity of the virus are i) climatic parameters (e.g. during autumn and winter the infectivity of the coronavirus increases significantly due to the fact that we spend more time indoors), ii) the emergence of new mutated strains of the virus that may increase its infectivity or immune evasion, the ability of the virus, that is, to infect individuals with immunity, iii) other properties such as, for example, whether the virus infects the upper respiratory tract, and therefore more easily transmitted, etc. At the same time, immunity in the population depends on the vaccination coverage rate, the length of time that has passed since vaccination, the type of vaccine and the strains it includes, as well as whether we have been infected with the virus, the species (variant, subvariant) of the virus that has infected us and the length of time that has passed since the infection.
The coronavirus causes new waves when its ability to infect the population (infectiousness) is increased relative to immunity in the population. For the reasons mentioned above this happens during the autumn/winter months and when the immunity against the infection weakens either due to the emergence of a new variant/sub-variant or in combination with the passage of a long period of time since our vaccination or exposure to the virus.
Based on our present experience, the possibility of a new subvariant becoming dominant, or causing a new wave due to a new subvariant, depends on whether the new subvariant has a relative advantage over the subvariant circulating in the population. Although the BA.2.75 “centaur” subvariant has been emerging for a few months, it is currently trending only in India and in no other region, so there is no indication that it can dominate BA.5. This means that the possibility of dominance in regions, such as in our country, where BA.5 exists in large percentages, is not a given.
In conclusion, an upcoming wave is very likely to occur during the autumn-winter period in our country for the reasons mentioned above, but the data available to date do not provide evidence that this will happen with certainty, due to the possible dominance of the BA.2.75 subvariant. . Also, the high rates of hybrid immunity in the population and the high intensity of the recent wave with the BA.5 subvariant makes the course of the coronavirus in the immediate future not entirely predictable. On the other hand, what is almost certain is that the protection provided by the vaccine against serious disease is important and that the coronavirus, although it continues to circulate among us, if something does not change dramatically regarding the properties of the virus, it causes smaller rates of severe disease compared to the past. Observance of protective measures, vaccination, early diagnosis and in any case not the cultivation of panic are our weapons for dealing with it.
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