Coronavirus: When will the pandemic wave peak – Scientists’ forecast |

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A recent WebMD article states that a new but milder outbreak of COVID-19 is expected next winter. The bibliography is reviewed by the Professors of Medicine of EKPA Dimitrios Paraskevi (Associate Professor of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine) and Thanos Dimopoulos (Rector of EKPA).

According to estimates by experts from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation of the University of Washington who accurately predicted COVID-19 waves last winter and summer, an outbreak of COVID-19 in the US next winter is considered possible.

Ali Mokdad, MD, an epidemiologist and head of strategic health planning at the University of Washington, says the next outbreak will begin around the end of November and peak in the second half of January.

The wave next winter is expected to be milder than last year unless a new mutant strain emerges that can escape vaccine immunity. The death rate and morbidity rates will be lower than before vaccines were available. Vaccines are very effective against the risk of hospitalization and death in relation to protection against infection.

At the peak of last winter, the actual daily number of cases was estimated at around 340,000 cases, while at the peak of the wave this winter, the corresponding number is estimated at 250,000 cases. The number of deaths peaked at 2,000 deaths a day in September, while next winter the daily death toll will rise to about 1,300 in January.

Mokdad cited two reasons why he believes a new COVID-19 wave is inevitable. First, less than 60% of the US population is fully vaccinated and second, the winter climatic conditions that force us to live indoors for a long time without masks.

Peter Katona, MD, a professor of medicine at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, says it is impossible to predict what will happen in the coming months. Based on the available data, it seems that COVID-19 is not as seasonal as the flu.

Herd immunity

Achieving herd immunity requires at least 85% of the population to develop immunity, according to Mokdad, while Katona raises the figure to 95% for Delta strains.

Since only about 58% of Americans have been fully vaccinated to date, herd immunity also depends on the immunity they have developed and the non-vaccinated previously COVID-19 infected.

To calculate immunity in the population, one should not simply add the percentage of fully vaccinated to the percentage of those who became infected and recovered. This is because “vaccine-induced immunity is much more effective than vaccine-induced immunity,” says Katona. The number of people who are infected and remain undiagnosed must also be accurately estimated.

After four or five waves of COVID-19 in the US, most people have been exposed to the virus even though they had no symptoms. Vaccination and natural immunity therefore contribute to the desired percentage of herd immunity, says Malani of the University of Michigan.

Vaccination of children is a critical parameter
One factor that could help build collective immunity is the vaccination of children and adolescents. Nearly a quarter of the US population is under 18 years old. The government is preparing to make vaccines available to children aged 5 to 11.

Katona says there are three reasons for parents to vaccinate their children: To reduce the risk of disease, to reduce the risk of long-term COVID-19, and also to reduce the spread of the virus in the community.

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