The new government’s priorities have been announced, the ministries outlined. And not even a single word about the demographic trend that has increasingly characterized us for decades: rapid population ageing. In the coming years, this trend will intensify.
The new federal administration starts with a population of elderly people equivalent to 15.1% of the total. In 2027, at the beginning of the next administration, the proportion will have reached 17.3%, corresponding to around 38 million Brazilians. Trivial? Do not.
We are talking about an increase of more than 5 million Brazilian men and women, the only segment of the population that will have increased in proportional terms. And they will all be able to vote.
If they maintain the preferences expressed in the recent elections, they will be overwhelmingly conservative votes. They will be able, in tight elections, to decide the result. Not contemplating them with public policies is an announced risk, a tremendous shot in the foot.
Demography is destiny. And unless something catastrophic happens, like a pandemic even more devastating and mismanaged than the coronavirus among us (remember, 3% of the global population and 11% of all deaths) we can predict with a high degree of accuracy what awaits us.
It is true that the pandemic has robbed us of a few years of life expectancy, especially among the poorest, black and indigenous populations, those who live on the outskirts of large cities. Still, a child born today can expect to live 77 years. In 1970, it did not reach 57.
That’s 20 more years of life in five decades, despite the precarious living conditions of most Brazilians. Suffice it to say that 50% of our population does not even have access to sanitary sewage.
In the next elections, we will be, according to the United Nations, the fifth largest elderly population in the world. According to the IBGE, in 2022 the proportion of people over 50 years of age will be greater than those under 30. Before 2030, the 60+ population will be greater than that of those under 15 years of age.
Not only are more and more people turning 60 (currently three every hour). The average number of children a woman has by the time she reaches the end of her reproductive life has been below replacement rates for more than 20 years. Fewer babies, children, teenagers, young adults and an increasing number of sixty-year-olds.
Faced with these numbers, the incoming government needs to think about public policies that adequately and effectively serve this increasingly large portion of the population. The absence of administrative sensitivity to conduct social, health, lifelong learning services, a culture of care would have a political and social price of immediate consequences, not for a distant future. The economic viability of the country in terms of productivity and competitiveness depends on the set of policies that reflect this demographic reality.
The binomial health and education will always come first. Health is perceived as obvious, we all want to age healthy. And this does not just depend on individual efforts, it needs to be supported by effective public policies. But without investing in lifelong learning, we will harm not only those who have already aged (how many of them are actually or functionally illiterate) as well as younger adults who aspire to grow old enjoying better living conditions.
The greatest renewable asset a country can count on is its people. In 2038, Brazil will have reached its population peak and from then on the population decline will begin. There are no models to copy, as countries that have already experienced such a decline had become rich before they aged.
Today’s youthful bulge will pass through Brazilian demographic schemes like a sheep being bit by bit digested by an anaconda. Without policies that embrace a life course perspective, we will be condemned to producing commodities and we will continue to be a poor country even if it is aging.
The question we are faced with is simple: will we continue to look at aging as a topic of the future or will it dawn on us that the young country is a thing of the past?
I have over 8 years of experience in the news industry. I have worked for various news websites and have also written for a few news agencies. I mostly cover healthcare news, but I am also interested in other topics such as politics, business, and entertainment. In my free time, I enjoy writing fiction and spending time with my family and friends.
