Hospitalizations in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) for Covid-19 in the state of São Paulo have increased in recent days, reflecting the explosion of cases and increased transmission of the virus after the holiday season.
As of January 3, there were 1,141 patients in ICU beds in the state of São Paulo, with 468 new records that day. Last Monday (10), the state had 1,597 patients hospitalized in ICU beds, with 800 new records, or 71% more.
When the comparison is made between the 3rd and this Tuesday (11th), the difference is greater. As of Tuesday, there were a total of 1,727 patients in ICU beds, with 895 new records, or 91% more.
The growth was also verified in some of the health regions of the state, being the main one in the Greater São Paulo region.
While on January 3, 665 patients were hospitalized in the ICU in the metropolitan region, last Monday (10) this number was already 896, an increase of 34.7%. Regarding the new daily admissions, it went from 255 on the 3rd to 428 on the 10th.
The ICU bed occupancy rate has also increased in the last 14 days, from 22.7% of ICU beds across the state on December 29, to 35.3% last Monday, and from 30 .2% in the Greater São Paulo region at the end of December to 42.5% on January 10th.
In a note, the Secretary of State for Health said that it monitors the pandemic daily based on indicators, mainly hospitalization, evaluated in real time, and that it identified a 30% increase in ICU and ward hospitalizations in the last epidemiological week, the majority being in infirmary beds.
The secretariat also said that it continues with exclusive beds for the care of Covid-19, and can also provide care for other cases of Srag (severe acute respiratory syndrome).
Although the omni appears to cause milder conditions, the pressure on health systems leads to an increase in hospitalizations, even if the number of deaths from Covid remains at a lower level compared to previous waves of the pandemic. Experts warn that, on average, 15 days after the rise in cases, there is also an increase in hospitalizations.
According to the secretary of health of São Paulo, Jean Gorinchteyn, the state is monitoring the increase in hospitalizations and analyzing the best measures to be taken to reduce the risk of circulation of the two respiratory viruses, the coronavirus and influenza.
When asked if the state intends to open new beds, the secretary said that there is no such perspective for now. “We have beds that are no longer demobilized [para Covid] and we still have thousands of ICU beds available, so there is no need now [de abertura]”, disse Gorinchteyn.
“But we have to understand that we are taking preventive measures to prevent people from getting sick, and most hospitalizations today are in infirmary beds, not ICU.”
For Wallace Casaca, professor of mathematics and computing at Unesp and one of the coordinators of InfoTracker, the increases in hospitalizations in both ICU and ward beds across the state are already widespread, and the speed with which new patients need hospitalization is worrying. .
“The curve has gained new dimensions since December, it started to increase in a very explosive way, with some regions registering twice as many hospitalized in a short period of time, of five days”, he said.
One of the examples is the region of Bauru, in the west of the state of São Paulo. The number of patients admitted to ICU beds in the region on January 3 was 17 patients, but last Monday (10) there were 31 hospitalized, an increase of 82% in seven days.
“Of course, we know that this increase was predictable because of the omnipresent being prevalent across the state and with the holidays that promoted outbreaks of infections, but what worries me is that these trends were already being verified in Northern Hemisphere countries and here across the state we are having a scenario similar to what we saw in January 2021”, he said.
A point that should play in favor of this new wave, according to the researcher, is the high vaccination coverage throughout the state, which causes the number of deaths to be lower, but the pressure on the health system remains the same. “Unfortunately, this is the scenario in the state of São Paulo today, and if nothing is done, it may be that many of these cases lead to pressure on health services,” he said.
The pressure on the health service is already verified with the waiting lines for care in hospitals and UBSs in the state capital and with the high demand for Covid exams.
For Gorinchteyn, this new wave, despite having a rise in attendance, should not put so much pressure on the health service because patients remain hospitalized for a shorter period of time. “What we’ve noticed is that there’s been a statewide increase in cases of flu syndrome, which unites both Covid and flu patients, but the patients are not as critical as we’ve had. [na onda da gama], the release of beds occurs more quickly”, he said.
Casaca, from Unesp, ponders: “If the government hadn’t wasted the time it lost to define whether the rise in cases was Covid or flu, but rather, since then, expanded testing strategies throughout the state and other measures to prevent the chain of transmission of the virus, the growth curve now might not be so steep.”
“It’s like a train running downhill and the driver doesn’t know how fast the train is going. We need to mitigate the advance of Covid as soon as possible, and unfortunately this situation was expected in view of what has been happening in other countries”, he said.
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