(News Bulletin 247) – Helped by the prospect of a short break in the aggressive turn made by the Fed this year, the Euro/Dollar continued to develop a rebound whose technical ground was already very rich. The flagship currency pair is now in the phase of tracing a triangle in contact with a 50-day moving average (in orange), the bias of which is still negative. This is a real test, even as new inflation data will feed the calendar for traders this week.
In the absence of a landmark from Wall Street that day due to a public holiday (Memorial Day), the variations should, unless surprised, remain within narrow margins, in a market that continues to focus on the inflationary theme. As such, the relief was noticeable on Friday with PCE prices in line with expectations across the Atlantic.
China will also continue – the two subjects are moreover linked – to attract the attention of the trading rooms, while the gradual lifting of restrictions continues, “with the prospect that the worst is behind us […], for Vincent Boy (IG France). “Thus, the country announced the lifting of certain restrictions in Shanghai and Beijing, as well as new support measures, which this time could have a positive effect on the markets.” And therefore on risk appetite, which the Euro faithfully reflects.
DeStatis must publish new figures on German inflation during the day: the consumer price index in preliminary data for the month that is ending.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0760 about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The current test of the 50-day moving average (in orange) is important. For now, the energy is not dissipating, and we will stick with a potential crossover of remarkable moving averages to raise a buy alert. For the time being, traders will prefer to stay out of the spot.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0454 USD and the resistance at 1.0855 USD.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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