Markets

EUR/USD: Torn between the weakness of the US economy and Russian gas

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(News Bulletin 247) – Despite slight losses following Mr Powell’s statements on Thursday, the Dollar should continue to appreciate. Indeed, the new increase in interest rates carried out the day before by the FED shows its determination to do everything possible to limit inflation. For its part, the ECB is less aggressive: a rate hike of 0.5% vs. 0.75% across the Atlantic.

Given the current context and as long as it lasts, in our view, we must not remain in the seller’s camp at all costs. Indeed, for essentially psychological reasons the parity is not broken and there is nothing to suggest that it is.

For the time being, the rebound initiated on July 11 seems to be drying up, but sellers are not very convinced.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The Euro sees its rebound, operated since the achievement of perfect parity, seems to be coming to an end. Entering a rebalancing phase, not without volatility, was the chosen option. Our neutral opinion remains valid, therefore avoiding taking positions immediately and always waiting for a real will from the sellers.

The latter are torn because the weakness of the American economy does not favor them. On the other hand, the euro zone risks paying a heavy price with the war in Ukraine because the gas supply will become more and more problematic, especially since Russia holds the keys to real blackmail, Machiavelli’s manual in hand.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity. We will technically maintain this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0000 USD and resistance at 1.0274 USD

CHART IN DAILY DATA

©2022 News Bulletin 247

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