(News Bulletin 247) – The Dollar should continue to appreciate as the US central bank is much more aggressive than the European central bank in fighting inflation. We should have an example of that tonight. An increase of 0.75% is acquired but some evoke the possibility of an increase of 1%. In reality, the real question remains whether at the start of the school year, this “aggressiveness” will continue.
In the evening, so expect some rowdiness. So far, operators have not wanted an attack on parity. However, the ECB has been content so far and even belatedly according to some to put an end to the policy of negative rates. The reactions of the FED are much more lively and an illustration of the remark should intervene with the press conference of the governor of the FED
Holding this state of affairs and as long as it lasts, in our view we must avoid remaining in the seller’s camp because for essentially psychological reasons the parity is not broken. On the other hand, it will be necessary to run to take the bandwagon if the forex traders pulverize the symbolic support of parity. For the time being, the rebound initiated on July 11 seems to be coming to an end
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
Between potential “remuneration” lower than expected, and risk of recession, particularly with regard to the weight of German industry, the Euro has seen its rebound, operated since the achievement of perfect parity, dry up. Entering a rebalancing phase, not without volatility, was the chosen option. Our neutral opinion remains valid, therefore avoiding taking positions immediately and still waiting for the outcome of the FED meeting.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) pair until tonight. We will technically keep this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0000 USD and the resistance at 1.0274 USD
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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