CAC 40: Towards a short breath of prices

(News Bulletin 247) – Graphical and technical analysis of the CAC 40 (-0.24% yesterday at 5,769 points), while confirming the underlying downward bias, suggests a breath in short-term prices, in the form of ‘a technical challenge rebound, himself driven by the files that have suffered the most since September 13, whether Renault, Société Générale, Kering or STMicroelectronics, for as many representatives of the automotive, banking, luxury or technology sectors.

As a reminder, the benchmark barometer of the Paris Stock Exchange sank below 6,000 points last week, very clearly, with the resolutely belligerent tone of the Fed, Vladimir Putin’s “headlong rush” calling for a partial mobilization of Russian reservists, and a battery of unprepossessing activity indicators in Europe.

In terms of statistics, the IFO index of the business climate in Germany has corroborated this feeling. The barometer indicator for the leading economy in the Euro Zone missed expectations and fell to 84.3 points, the lowest since… March 2020 and the start of the health crisis. The comments accompanying the raw data from the survey are without concession or nuance: “Pessimism about the coming months has increased decidedly; in the retail trade, expectations have fallen to a record low. The German economy is slipping into recession.”

A recession which “will lead to an easing of the constraint on commodity prices as well as on the last remaining bottlenecks. curb an overheating economy. For its part, the ECB, which has adopted a similar posture, is not in a position to counter the current energy shock on its own, but it can nevertheless avoid the diffusion of second-round effects in the European economy. “, believes Romain Aumond (BFT IM).

In terms of values ​​for Monday’s session alone, values, M6 ended down more than 4% at 13.80 euros after taking advantage of the expressions of interest from several buyers to snatch the second largest private television group in France. Elior had a dark day and dropped more than 25% on Monday evening, several analysts doubting the group’s ability to shine in an inflationary environment.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices once again contracted, like the Dow Jones (-1.11% to 29,260 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (-0.60 on Monday). % at 10,802 points). The S&P 500, the reference barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, lost 1.03% to 3,655 points (-23.30% since 1/01).

A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $0.9660. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $77.50.

To be followed as a priority on the statistical agenda this Tuesday, the American consumer confidence index (Conference Board) at 4:00 p.m.

Note, for holders of positions on the DR: the monthly liquidation will take place at the end of the session on Tuesday, September 27.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The symbolic 6,000 points were broken under validating conditions of volume and volatility, and the new work zone identified between 5,785 and 6,000 points will have been crossed in one go last week. At this stage, the possibility of a technical reaction will take shape. We lacked the materialization of the conditions for its implementation. We mentioned yesterday morning the possibility of a candle in harami or sharp downward acceleration from the start of the session. It is actually in “inverted hammer” which comes to give us a signal of the same nature.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is above the support at 5858.00 points.

Hourly data chart

Chart in daily data

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