(News Bulletin 247) – Against the backdrop of an upswing in 10-year US government bond yields (Treasuries 10 years) which are again flirting with 4%, the Nasdaq Composite, by nature rich in growth stocks, mechanically suffered on Tuesday (-1.10% to 10,426 points) while the Dow Jones, rich in industrial and banking, managed keep your head above water as the publication of the Fed Minutes approaches tonight at 8:00 p.m. (Paris time), the traditional high-stakes report of the last Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC).
“Returns on 10-year benchmarks hit 4% for the first time since mid-2010. This is well above their fair value, which we estimate at 3.2% and which takes into account more than $1.5 trillion in quantitative tightening from the Fed, our long-term inflation outlook and weakening near-term growth momentum,” Pictet WM strategists said.
Operators are digesting very robust employment figures (published on Friday) and are anxiously approaching tomorrow’s publication of consumer price indices for the month of September. “The labor market remains robust, especially in the services sector. This may not be ‘bad news’ enough to prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to halt its rate hike cycle. interest, but maybe enough to slow it down,” said Warren Hylan, Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager at Muzinich.
In the immediate future, operators have just learned of the producer price index, up 0.4% for the widest basket of products, slipping beyond expectations. Tomorrow’s consumer price indices will be a statistical hot spot this week. Just like the quarterly publication Thursday of the Taiwanese giant of the chip, TSCM, in an electric atmosphere after, as a reminder, the profit warning of AMC (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) which caused a shock wave on Friday on the whole of this sector. engine for the index that interests us here.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The small lateral transition that we foresee will have lasted three sessions, in volumes in free fall. A significant increase in this level of participation on the day’s falling session would give credence to the bearish scenario, even though the failure against a resistance zone (the 20-day moving average) is surgically observed. Beneath this short-term trend line, which is firmly under pressure, the opinion will remain negative on the flagship index of US listed technology stocks.
FORECAST
Considering the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq Composite index is trading below the resistance at 11250.00 points.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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