(News Bulletin 247) – The Euro and the Dollar neutralized each other as the Fed Minutes approached, the long-awaited minutes of the last monetary policy meeting, in the context of a slowdown in price increases, against a background of maintaining a firm discourse from the leaders of the regional branches.
Because “if the inflation figures in the United States have been rather positive, the fight towards the 2% target is not yet completely won”, warns Thomas GIUDICI, Head of bond management at AURIS Gestion. “The members of the FOMC are also there to remind us (hoping that they do not have the same foresight as Cassandre), which makes it possible to “recalibrate” the expectations of investors who are sometimes a little too optimistic.”
While the slowdown in the progression of US CPIs had augured, two weeks ago, a relative easing of the Fed’s monetary policy, the signs of a continuation of the tightening have indeed multiplied thereafter. James Bullard, the chairman of the St. Louis branch of the US Federal Reserve, known for his “hawkish” positions, said rates should move above 5% to curb inflation.
See you at 8:00 p.m. for the publication, before many forex traders desert the foreign exchange market in the midst of Thanksgiving festivities. The lack of statistical benchmarks will be glaring for the last two days of the week. Wall Street will also be closed Thursday and will reopen Friday for a shortened session. To be monitored this afternoon are US PMIs at 3:45 p.m., new home sales and revised consumer confidence data (U-Mich) at 4:00 p.m. The weekly registrations for unemployment benefits will be published at 2:30 p.m.
In the immediate future, RAS concerning the PMI battery (activity barometer indicator calculated after surveys of purchasing managers), in the Euro Zone. The deviations from the consensus are rather limited, although all the components remain significantly below the 50 mark. The only good surprise concerns the German industrial score which is up 1.6 points.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, provided the following insights: “A further drop in activity in November increases the likelihood that the eurozone economy will slide into recession. So far, Q4 data is consistent with GDP contracting at a quarterly rate of just over 0.2%.Nevertheless, the November PMI data also brings relatively good news, in the sense that the decline has Encouragingly, supply constraints are showing signs of easing, with supplier performance improving even in the monetary union’s top industrial power, Germany. Mild weather has also allayed some of the fears about power shortages during the winter months.”
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0300 about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The very significant high wick on Tuesday 15/11 heralded the start of a consolidation phase that is taking a corrective turn, heading towards the 20-day moving average (in dark blue). Below this, a return to a level of perfect parity ($1/€) should be considered.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0100 USD and the resistance at 1.0484 USD.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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